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Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability. Yet, conformal prediction is not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann

Conformal prediction methods provide statistically rigorous marginal coverage guarantees for machine learning models, but such guarantees fail to account for algorithmic biases, thereby undermining fairness and trust. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Senrong Xu , Yanke Zhou , Yuhao Tan , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long

This paper develops novel conformal prediction methods for classification tasks that can automatically adapt to random label contamination in the calibration sample, leading to more informative prediction sets with stronger coverage…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-23 Matteo Sesia , Y. X. Rachel Wang , Xin Tong

Many real-world classification problems, such as plant identification, have extremely long-tailed class distributions. In order for prediction sets to be useful in such settings, they should (i) provide good class-conditional coverage,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Tiffany Ding , Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Joseph Salmon

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Renukanandan Tumu , Aditya Singh , Rahul Mangharam

We investigate the integration of Conformal Prediction (CP) with supervised learning on deterministically encrypted data, aiming to bridge the gap between rigorous uncertainty quantification and privacy-preserving machine learning. Using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Alexander David Balinsky , Dominik Krzeminski , Alexander Balinsky

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Pengqi Liu , Zijun Yu , Mouloud Belbahri , Arthur Charpentier , Masoud Asgharian , Jesse C. Cresswell

Existing evaluations of conformal prediction, such as prediction efficiency and test-conditional coverage, are defined in expectation over the calibration data. In practice, when only one calibration set of limited size is available,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Yinjie Min , Liuhua Peng , Changliang Zou

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yangyi Li , Chenxu Zhao , Mengdi Huai

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

We present recent advances in formal verification and control for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees enabled by conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. This survey is particularly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-19 Lars Lindemann , Yiqi Zhao , Xinyi Yu , George J. Pappas , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh

Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 James Wang , Surbhi Goel

In supervised learning, including regression and classification, conformal methods provide prediction sets for the outcome/label with finite sample coverage for any machine learning predictor. We consider here the case where such prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Ariane Marandon , Etienne Roquain

Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with finite-sample marginal coverage, but many applications require coverage guarantees that adapt to individual test points, a subpopulation, or a structural component of the data. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Yinjie Min , Liuhua Peng , Changliang Zou

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Conformal inference, cross-validation+, and the jackknife+ are hold-out methods that can be combined with virtually any machine learning algorithm to construct prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. In this paper, we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-24 Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Emmanuel J. Candès

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi