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The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-27 Sadegh Shirani , Mohsen Bayati

We develop an empirical Bayes framework for experimental design that leverages information from prior related studies. When a researcher has access to estimates from previous studies on similar parameters, they can use empirical Bayes to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Zhiheng You

This article aims to study efficient/trace optimal designs for crossover trials with multiple responses recorded from each subject in the time periods. A multivariate fixed effects model is proposed with direct and carryover effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-04 Shubham Niphadkar , Siuli Mukhopadhyay

Deep learning fostered a leap ahead in automated skin lesion analysis in the last two years. Those models are expensive to train and difficult to parameterize. Objective: We investigate methodological issues for designing and evaluating…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Eduardo Valle , Michel Fornaciali , Afonso Menegola , Julia Tavares , Flávia Vasques Bittencourt , Lin Tzy Li , Sandra Avila

The hybrid approach to experimental design aims to control frequentist operating characteristics of Bayesian decision procedures. These operating characteristics are assessed by simulating sampling distributions of posterior summaries under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Luke Hagar , James M. McGree

We present current methods for estimating treatment effects and spillover effects under "interference", a term which covers a broad class of situations in which a unit's outcome depends not only on treatments received by that unit, but also…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-16 Peter M. Aronow , Dean Eckles , Cyrus Samii , Stephanie Zonszein

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar

Data for several applications in diverse fields can be represented as multiple matrices that are linked across rows or columns. This is particularly common in molecular biomedical research, in which multiple molecular "omics" technologies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-02 Eric F. Lock

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

This paper studies experimental designs for estimation and inference on policies with spillover effects. Units are organized into a finite number of large clusters and interact in unknown ways within each cluster. First, we introduce a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-06 Davide Viviano , Jess Rudder

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a framework that uses statistical models and decision making under uncertainty to optimise the cost and performance of a scientific experiment. Sequential BED, as opposed to static BED, considers the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-23 Steven Kleinegesse , Christopher Drovandi , Michael U. Gutmann

Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-03 Daolang Huang , Yujia Guo , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

Design-based simulations - procedures that hold realized outcomes fixed and generate variation by resampling treatment assignment or shocks - are widely used in both methodological and applied work to assess inference procedures. This paper…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-13 Bruno Ferman

A new empirical Bayes approach to variable selection in the context of generalized linear models is developed. The proposed algorithm scales to situations in which the number of putative explanatory variables is very large, possibly much…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-29 Haim Bar , James Booth , Martin T. Wells

Machine learning models have achieved widespread success but often inherit and amplify historical biases, resulting in unfair outcomes. Traditional fairness methods typically impose constraints at the prediction level, without addressing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Enze Shi , Pankaj Bhagwat , Zhixian Yang , Linglong Kong , Bei Jiang

Suppose an online platform wants to compare a treatment and control policy, e.g., two different matching algorithms in a ridesharing system, or two different inventory management algorithms in an online retail site. Standard randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-27 Peter Glynn , Ramesh Johari , Mohammad Rasouli

Classical designs of randomized experiments, going back to Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s still dominate practice even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in settings,…

Traditionally Bayesian decision-theoretic design of experiments proceeds by choosing a design to minimise expectation of a given loss function over the space of all designs. The loss function encapsulates the aim of the experiment, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree

We investigate the optimal design of experimental studies that have pre-treatment outcome data available. The average treatment effect is estimated as the difference between the weighted average outcomes of the treated and control units. A…