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Across domains such as medicine, employment, and criminal justice, predictive models often target labels that imperfectly reflect the outcomes of interest to experts and policymakers. For example, clinical risk assessments deployed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-07 Ashesh Rambachan , Amanda Coston , Edward Kennedy

The main aim of decision support systems is to find solutions that satisfy user requirements. Often, this leads to predictability of those solutions, in the sense that having the input data and the model, an adversary or enemy can predict…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Daniel Karapetyan , Andrew J. Parkes

Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Matt J. Kusner , Joshua R. Loftus , Chris Russell , Ricardo Silva

In high-stakes domains like healthcare, users often expect that sharing personal information with machine learning systems will yield tangible benefits, such as more accurate diagnoses and clearer explanations of contributing factors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Louisa Cornelis , Guillermo Bernárdez , Haewon Jeong , Nina Miolane

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Clinicians increasingly rely on prediction models to guide treatment choices. Most prediction models, however, are developed using observational data that include some patients who have already received the treatment the prediction model is…

Top-N recommendation, which aims to learn user ranking-based preference, has long been a fundamental problem in a wide range of applications. Traditional models usually motivate themselves by designing complex or tailored architectures…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-09-14 Mengyue Yang , Quanyu Dai , Zhenhua Dong , Xu Chen , Xiuqiang He , Jun Wang

Algorithms frequently assist, rather than replace, human decision-makers. However, the design and analysis of algorithms often focus on predicting outcomes and do not explicitly model their effect on human decisions. This discrepancy…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Bryce McLaughlin , Jann Spiess

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Jamelle Watson-Daniels , David C. Parkes , Berk Ustun

As we increasingly delegate decision-making to algorithms, whether directly or indirectly, important questions emerge in circumstances where those decisions have direct consequences for individual rights and personal opportunities, as well…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-05-01 Teresa Scantamburlo , Andrew Charlesworth , Nello Cristianini

Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-13 Amanda Coston , Alan Mishler , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Algorithms are used to aid human decision makers by making predictions and recommending decisions. Currently, these algorithms are trained to optimize prediction accuracy. What if they were optimized to control final decisions? In this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-27 Ruqing Xu , Sarah Dean

Consequential decisions are increasingly informed by sophisticated data-driven predictive models. However, to consistently learn accurate predictive models, one needs access to ground truth labels. Unfortunately, in practice, labels may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-19 Niki Kilbertus , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez , Bernhard Schölkopf , Krikamol Muandet , Isabel Valera

Big data and algorithmic risk prediction tools promise to improve criminal justice systems by reducing human biases and inconsistencies in decision making. Yet different, equally-justifiable choices when developing, testing, and deploying…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-09-23 Travis Greene , Galit Shmueli , Jan Fell , Ching-Fu Lin , Han-Wei Liu

Unaided human decision making appears to systematically violate consistency constraints imposed by normative theories; these biases in turn appear to justify the application of formal decision-analytic models. It is argued that both claims…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Marvin S. Cohen

As deep neural networks are more commonly deployed in high-stakes domains, their black-box nature makes uncertainty quantification challenging. We investigate the presentation of conformal prediction sets--a distribution-free class of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Dongping Zhang , Angelos Chatzimparmpas , Negar Kamali , Jessica Hullman

The way that people make choices or exhibit preferences can be strongly affected by the set of available alternatives, often called the choice set. Furthermore, there are usually heterogeneous preferences, either at an individual level…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Kiran Tomlinson , Austin R. Benson

As predictive models -- e.g., from machine learning -- give likely outcomes, they may be used to reason on the effect of an intervention, a causal-inference task. The increasing complexity of health data has opened the door to a plethora of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-17 Matthieu Doutreligne , Gaël Varoquaux

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro