Related papers: Distribution-Free Predictive Inference under Unkno…

Uncertainty-aware prediction is essential for safe motion planning, especially when using learned models to forecast the behavior of surrounding agents. Conformal prediction is a statistical tool often used to produce uncertainty-aware…

Explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees on model performance are an important ingredient in responsible machine learning. Previous work has focused mainly on bounding either the expected loss of a predictor or the probability that an…

In open-domain dialogues, predictive uncertainties are mainly evaluated in a domain shift setting to cope with out-of-distribution inputs. However, in real-world conversations, there could be more extensive distributional shifted inputs…

Distributional ambiguity sets provide quantifiable ways to characterize the uncertainty about the true probability distribution of random variables of interest. This makes them a key element in data-driven robust optimization by exploiting…

We introduce an adaptive method with formal quality guarantees for weak supervision in a non-stationary setting. Our goal is to infer the unknown labels of a sequence of data by using weak supervision sources that provide independent noisy…

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments, it becomes paramount to assess and quantify uncertainties associated with distribution shifts. A distribution shift occurs when the underlying data-generating…

We develop an online learning method for prediction, which is important in problems with large and/or streaming data sets. We formulate the learning approach using a covariance-fitting methodology, and show that the resulting predictor has…

Most machine learning models operate under the assumption that the training, testing and deployment data is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). This assumption doesn't generally hold true in a natural setting. Usually, the…

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Decision-making pipelines are generally characterized by tradeoffs among various risk functions. It is often desirable to manage such tradeoffs in a data-adaptive manner. As we demonstrate, if this is done naively, state-of-the art…

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Short-term forecasting models typically assume the availability of input data (features) when they are deployed and in use. However, equipment failures, disruptions, cyberattacks, may lead to missing features when such models are used…

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Generating high quality uncertainty estimates for sequential regression, particularly deep recurrent networks, remains a challenging and open problem. Existing approaches often make restrictive assumptions (such as stationarity) yet still…

The world is not static: This causes real-world time series to change over time through external, and potentially disruptive, events such as macroeconomic cycles or the COVID-19 pandemic. We present an adaptive sampling strategy that…

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to…

This paper studies a data-driven predictive control for a class of control-affine systems which is subject to uncertainty. With the accessibility to finite sample measurements of the uncertain variables, we aim to find controls which are…

Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more…

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…