Related papers: Foundation Inference Models for Markov Jump Proces…
We propose a method for approximating solutions to optimization problems involving the global stability properties of parameter-dependent continuous-time autonomous dynamical systems. The method relies on an approximation of the…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
We study a class of multi-stage stochastic programs, which incorporate modeling features from Markov decision processes (MDPs). This class includes structured MDPs with continuous action and state spaces. We extend policy graphs to include…
For a network of discrete states with a periodically driven Markovian dynamics, we develop an inference scheme for an external observer who has access to some transitions. Based on waiting-time distributions between these transitions, the…
In this paper, we proved moderate deviation principles for a fully coupled two-time-scale stochastic systems, where the slow process is given by stochastic differential equations with small noise, while the fast process is a rapidly…
We consider the modeling of data generated by a latent continuous-time Markov jump process with a state space of finite but unknown dimensions. Typically in such models, the number of states has to be pre-specified, and Bayesian inference…
We consider a new class of non Markovian processes with a countable number of interacting components, both in discrete and continuous time. Each component is represented by a point process indicating if it has a spike or not at a given…
Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov,…
Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…
Given noisy, partial observations of a time-homogeneous, finite-statespace Markov chain, conceptually simple, direct statistical inference is available, in theory, via its rate matrix, or infinitesimal generator, $\mathsf{Q}$, since $\exp…
A Markov state model of the dynamics of a protein-like chain immersed in an implicit hard sphere solvent is derived from first principles for a system of monomers that interact via discontinuous potentials designed to account for local…
In the context of nonparametric Bayesian estimation a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is devised and implemented to sample from the posterior distribution of the drift function of a continuously or discretely observed one-dimensional…
We consider a pure jump process $\{X_t\}_{t\ge 0}$ with values in a finite state space $S= \{1, \ldots, d\}$ for which the jump rates at time instant $t$ depend on the occupation measure $L_t \doteq t^{-1} \int_0^t \delta_{X_s}\,ds$. Such…
Learning how to effectively control unknown dynamical systems is crucial for intelligent autonomous systems. This task becomes a significant challenge when the underlying dynamics are changing with time. Motivated by this challenge, this…
In this paper we consider large state space continuous time Markov chains (MCs) arising in the field of systems biology. For density dependent families of MCs that represent the interaction of large groups of identical objects, Kurtz has…
Markov decision processes (MDP) are a well-established model for sequential decision-making in the presence of probabilities. In robust MDP (RMDP), every action is associated with an uncertainty set of probability distributions, modelling…
Random metastability occurs when an externally forced or noisy system possesses more than one state of apparent equilibrium. This work investigates fluctuations in a class of random dynamical systems, arising from randomly perturbing a…
Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…