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Related papers: Transformer Conformal Prediction for Time Series

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While convolutional neural networks have shown a tremendous impact on various computer vision tasks, they generally demonstrate limitations in explicitly modeling long-range dependencies due to the intrinsic locality of the convolution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-06 Guanglei Yang , Hao Tang , Mingli Ding , Nicu Sebe , Elisa Ricci

Time series data is ubiquitous in research as well as in a wide variety of industrial applications. Effectively analyzing the available historical data and providing insights into the far future allows us to make effective decisions. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Kiran Madhusudhanan , Johannes Burchert , Nghia Duong-Trung , Stefan Born , Lars Schmidt-Thieme

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-24 Neo Wu , Bradley Green , Xue Ben , Shawn O'Banion

In recent times, Large Language Models (LLMs) have captured a global spotlight and revolutionized the field of Natural Language Processing. One of the factors attributed to the effectiveness of LLMs is the model architecture used for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-31 Oluwaseyi Ogunfowora , Homayoun Najjaran

Decoder-only transformers compute the conditional probability of the next token from a sequence of past observations. This paper derives, from first principles, inference architectures that solve the same prediction problem - and in doing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Aditya Kudre , Heng-Sheng Chang , Prashant G. Mehta

Transformer-based models have recently become dominant in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), yet the variations in their architecture, such as encoder-only, encoder-decoder, and decoder-only designs, raise a crucial question: What…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-18 Lefei Shen , Mouxiang Chen , Han Fu , Xiaoxue Ren , Xiaoyun Joy Wang , Jianling Sun , Zhuo Li , Chenghao Liu

Temporal causal discovery is a crucial task aimed at uncovering the causal relations within time series data. The latest temporal causal discovery methods usually train deep learning models on prediction tasks to uncover the causality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Lingbai Kong , Wengen Li , Hanchen Yang , Yichao Zhang , Jihong Guan , Shuigeng Zhou

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

We extend conformal inference to general settings that allow for time series data. Our proposal is developed as a randomization method and accounts for potential serial dependence by including block structures in the permutation scheme. As…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-09 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wuthrich , Yinchu Zhu

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Yong Liu , Tengge Hu , Haoran Zhang , Haixu Wu , Shiyu Wang , Lintao Ma , Mingsheng Long

AI-based methods have been widely applied to tourism demand forecasting. However, current AI-based methods are short of the ability to process long-term dependency, and most of them lack interpretability. The Transformer used initially for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-26 Siyuan Yi , Xing Chen , Chuanming Tang

In this paper, we find that ubiquitous time series (TS) forecasting models are prone to severe overfitting. To cope with this problem, we embrace a de-redundancy approach to progressively reinstate the intrinsic values of TS for future…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Daojun Liang , Haixia Zhang , Dongfeng Yuan , Bingzheng Zhang , Minggao Zhang

Analyzing long text data such as customer call transcripts is a cost-intensive and tedious task. Machine learning methods, namely Transformers, are leveraged to model agent-customer interactions. Unfortunately, Transformers adhere to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Annamalai Senthilnathan , Kristjan Arumae , Mohammed Khalilia , Zhengzheng Xing , Aaron R. Colak

The real world naturally has dimensions of time and space. Therefore, estimating the counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes is a crucial problem. However, previous methods are based on classical statistical models, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 He Li , Haoang Chi , Mingyu Liu , Wanrong Huang , Liyang Xu , Wenjing Yang

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Yuqi Nie , Nam H. Nguyen , Phanwadee Sinthong , Jayant Kalagnanam

Transformers are widely used in natural language processing due to their ability to model longer-term dependencies in text. Although these models achieve state-of-the-art performance for many language related tasks, their applicability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Nicholas Geneva , Nicholas Zabaras

Graph-based next-step prediction models have recently been very successful in modeling complex high-dimensional physical systems on irregular meshes. However, due to their short temporal attention span, these models suffer from error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-27 Xu Han , Han Gao , Tobias Pfaff , Jian-Xun Wang , Li-Ping Liu

Temporal set prediction involves forecasting the elements that will appear in the next set, given a sequence of prior sets, each containing a variable number of elements. Existing methods often rely on intricate architectures with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Ashish Ranjan , Ayush Agarwal , Shalin Barot , Sushant Kumar

Transformer-based models have shown strong performance in time-series forecasting by leveraging self-attention to model long-range temporal dependencies. However, their effectiveness depends critically on the quality and structure of input…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Saurish Nagrath , Saroj Kumar Panigrahy

Various modifications of TRANSFORMER were recently used to solve time-series forecasting problem. We propose Query Selector - an efficient, deterministic algorithm for sparse attention matrix. Experiments show it achieves state-of-the art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Jacek Klimek , Jakub Klimek , Witold Kraskiewicz , Mateusz Topolewski