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Information coefficient (IC) is a widely used metric for measuring investment managers' skills in selecting stocks. However, its adequacy and effectiveness for evaluating stock selection models has not been clearly understood, as IC from a…
Isothermal-isobaric molecular dynamics simulations are used to examine the microscopic structure and some properties of water-methanol liquid mixture. The TIP4P/2005 and SPC/E water models are combined with the united atom TraPPE and the…
Computational models in chemistry rely on a number of approximations. The effect of such approximations on observables derived from them is often unpredictable. Therefore, it is challenging to quantify the uncertainty of a computational…
Dual control addresses the trade-off between exploitation and exploration, where control inputs both regulate the system and generate informative data for estimation and identification. For certain problem classes, control and estimation…
Inexpensive machine learning potentials are increasingly being used to speed up structural optimization and molecular dynamics simulations of materials by iteratively predicting and applying interatomic forces. In these settings, it is…
In the framework of the estimation of safety margins in nuclear accident analysis, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainties tainting the results of computer simulations is essential. Accurate uncertainty propagation (estimation of…
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been widely applied in drug discovery with a major task as molecular property prediction. Despite booming techniques in molecular representation learning, key elements underlying molecular property…
The information diffusion prediction on social networks aims to predict future recipients of a message, with practical applications in marketing and social media. While different prediction models all claim to perform well, general…
Solidification governs the microstructure and, therefore, the mechanical response of metal components, yet the atomistic details of nucleation and defect formation are often difficult to determine experimentally. Molecular dynamics can…
We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models…
Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials play a fundamental role in computational chemistry and materials science, enabling applications from molecular dynamics simulations to drug design and materials discovery. While recent approaches can…
Software quality assurance activities become increasingly difficult as software systems become more and more complex and continuously grow in size. Moreover, testing becomes even more expensive when dealing with large-scale systems. Thus,…
Scholars frequently use covariate balance tests to test the validity of natural experiments and related designs. Unfortunately, when measured covariates are unrelated to potential outcomes, balance is uninformative about key identification…
Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLPs) are a promising technique for atomic modeling. While high accuracy and small errors are widely reported for MLPs, an open concern is whether MLPs can accurately reproduce atomistic dynamics and…
Recent research reveals that machine learning (ML) models are highly sensitive to minor changes in their training procedure, such as the inclusion or exclusion of a single data point, leading to conflicting predictions on individual data…
Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) and force fields (i.e. interaction laws for atoms and molecules) are typically trained on limited data-sets that cover only a very small section of the full space of possible input structures.…
Background: Clinical prediction models for a health condition are commonly evaluated regarding performance for a population, although decisions are made for individuals. The classic view relates uncertainty in risk estimates for individuals…
Predictive variability due to data ambiguities has typically been addressed via construction of dedicated models with built-in probabilistic capabilities that are trained to predict uncertainty estimates as variables of interest. These…
In a regression model, prediction is typically performed after model selection. The large variability in the model selection makes the prediction unstable. Thus, it is essential to reduce the variability in model selection and improve…
Predicting changes from scaling advanced AI systems is a desirable property for engineers, economists, governments and industry alike, and, while a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, predictable…