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In many randomized trials, outcomes such as essays or open-ended responses must be manually scored as a preliminary step to impact analysis, a process that is costly and limiting. Model-assisted estimation offers a way to combine surrogate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Reagan Mozer , Nicole E. Pashley , Luke Miratrix

Prediction-powered inference is a framework for performing valid statistical inference when an experimental dataset is supplemented with predictions from a machine-learning system. The framework yields simple algorithms for computing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-10 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Clara Fannjiang , Michael I. Jordan , Tijana Zrnic

The performance of a machine learning system is usually evaluated by using i.i.d.\ observations with true labels. However, acquiring ground truth labels is expensive, while obtaining unlabeled samples may be cheaper. Stratified sampling can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-29 Tiancheng Yu , Xiyu Zhai , Suvrit Sra

In many real-world applications, researchers aim to deploy models trained in a source domain to a target domain, where obtaining labeled data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even infeasible. While most existing literature assumes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Jiwei Zhao

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Obtaining high-quality labels is costly, whereas unlabeled covariates are often abundant, motivating semi-supervised inference methods with reliable uncertainty quantification. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages a machine-learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Se Yoon Lee , Jae Kwang Kim

Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a popular strategy for combining gold-standard and possibly noisy pseudo-labels to perform statistical estimation. Prior work has shown an asymptotic "free lunch" for PPI++, an adaptive form of PPI,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-27 Pranav Mani , Peng Xu , Zachary C. Lipton , Michael Oberst

To increase statistical efficiency in a randomized experiment, researchers often use stratification (i.e., blocking) in the design stage. However, conventional practices of stratification fail to exploit valuable information about the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Zikai Li

In many contemporary applications, large amounts of unlabeled data are readily available while labeled examples are limited. There has been substantial interest in semi-supervised learning (SSL) which aims to leverage unlabeled data to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-28 Jessica Gronsbell , Molei Liu , Lu Tian , Tianxi Cai

Monitoring the performance of classification models in production is critical yet challenging due to strict labeling budgets, one-shot batch acquisition of labels and extremely low error rates. We propose a general framework based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Lupo Marsigli , Angel Lopez de Haro

We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a black-box machine-learning predictor is available. The goal is to perform statistical inference on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-09 Yang Sui , Jin Zhou , Hua Zhou , Xiaowu Dai

We propose the conditional predictive impact (CPI), a consistent and unbiased estimator of the association between one or several features and a given outcome, conditional on a reduced feature set. Building on the knockoff framework of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-14 David S. Watson , Marvin N. Wright

We consider statistical inference under a semi-supervised setting where we have access to both a labeled dataset consisting of pairs $\{X_i, Y_i \}_{i=1}^n$ and an unlabeled dataset $\{ X_i \}_{i=n+1}^{n+N}$. We ask the question: under what…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Zichun Xu , Daniela Witten , Ali Shojaie

We propose a simple, statistically principled, and theoretically justified method to improve supervised learning when the training set is not representative, a situation known as covariate shift. We build upon a well-established methodology…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Maximilian Autenrieth , David A. van Dyk , Roberto Trotta , David C. Stenning

We study semi-supervised stochastic optimization when labeled data is scarce but predictions from pre-trained models are available. PPI and SVRG both reduce variance through control variates -- PPI uses predictions, SVRG uses reference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Ruicheng Ao , Hongyu Chen , Haoyang Liu , David Simchi-Levi , Will Wei Sun

This paper considers the problem of design-based inference for the average treatment effect in finely stratified experiments. Here, by "design-based'' we mean that the only source of uncertainty stems from the randomness in treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-08 Yuehao Bai , Xun Huang , Joseph P. Romano , Azeem M. Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

While reliable data-driven decision-making hinges on high-quality labeled data, the acquisition of quality labels often involves laborious human annotations or slow and expensive scientific measurements. Machine learning is becoming an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-01 Tijana Zrnic , Emmanuel J. Candès

The rapid proliferation of high-quality synthetic data -- generated by advanced AI models or collected as auxiliary data from related tasks -- presents both opportunities and challenges for statistical inference. This paper introduces a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Meshi Bashari , Yonghoon Lee , Roy Maor Lotan , Edgar Dobriban , Yaniv Romano

In many scientific experiments, the data annotating cost constraints the pace for testing novel hypotheses. Yet, modern machine learning pipelines offer a promising solution, provided their predictions yield correct conclusions. We focus on…

In this extended abstract, we discuss the opportunity to formally verify that inference systems for probabilistic programming guarantee good performance. In particular, we focus on hybrid inference systems that combine exact and approximate…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-07-17 Eric Atkinson , Ellie Y. Cheng , Guillaume Baudart , Louis Mandel , Michael Carbin