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Safe artificial intelligence for perception tasks remains a major challenge, partly due to the lack of data with high-quality labels. Annotations themselves are subject to aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, which is typically ignored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Jonathan Klees , Tobias Riedlinger , Peter Stehr , Bennet Böddecker , Daniel Kondermann , Matthias Rottmann

In reliable decision-making systems based on machine learning, models have to be robust to distributional shifts or provide the uncertainty of their predictions. In node-level problems of graph learning, distributional shifts can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Gleb Bazhenov , Denis Kuznedelev , Andrey Malinin , Artem Babenko , Liudmila Prokhorenkova

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have become the de facto standard for analyzing graph-structured data, leveraging message-passing techniques to capture both structural and node feature information. However, recent studies have raised concerns…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Yujia Wu , Bo Yang , Yang Zhao , Elynn Chen , Yuzhou Chen , Zheshi Zheng

Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications. A common approach is to use the predictive distribution from Bayesian or approximation models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 H. Martin Gillis , Isaac Xu , Thomas Trappenberg

Graph-structured datasets often suffer from class imbalance, which complicates node classification tasks. In this work, we address this issue by first providing an upper bound on population risk for imbalanced transductive node…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohammad T. Teimuri , Zahra Dehghanian , Gholamali Aminian , Hamid R. Rabiee

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Freddie Bickford Smith , Jannik Kossen , Eleanor Trollope , Mark van der Wilk , Adam Foster , Tom Rainforth

In this work, we study the influence of domain-specific characteristics when defining a meaningful notion of predictive uncertainty on graph data. Previously, the so-called Graph Posterior Network (GPN) model has been proposed to quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-09 Clemens Damke , Eyke Hüllermeier

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Kamaljit Chowdhary , Paul Dupuis

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , C. Puente , A. Sobrino , J. A. Olivas

This extended abstract introduces a class of graph learning applicable to cases where the underlying graph has polytopic uncertainty, i.e., the graph is not exactly known, but its parameters or properties vary within a known range. By…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-15 Masako Kishida , Shunsuke Ono

Graph databases are becoming widely successful as data models that allow to effectively represent and process complex relationships among various types of data. As with any other type of data repository, graph databases may suffer from…

Databases · Computer Science 2023-07-14 Sergio Abriola , Santiago Cifuentes , María Vanina Martínez , Nina Pardal , Edwin Pin

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Weizhu Qian , Dalin Zhang , Yan Zhao , Kai Zheng , James J. Q. Yu

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Laura A. Mansfield , Hannah M. Christensen

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying reliable Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), where existing approaches primarily rely on Bayesian inference or ensembles. In this paper, we introduce the first credal graph neural networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Matteo Tolloso , Davide Bacciu

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown remarkable performance in the healthcare domain. However, what remained challenging is quantifying the predictive uncertainty of GNNs, which is an important aspect of trustworthiness in clinical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Hirad Daneshvar , Reza Samavi

Uncertainty principles present an important theoretical tool in signal processing, as they provide limits on the time-frequency concentration of a signal. In many real-world applications the signal domain has a complicated irregular…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-06-29 Elizaveta Rebrova , Palina Salanevich

Graph Neural Networks have achieved impressive results across diverse network modeling tasks, but accurately estimating uncertainty on graphs remains difficult, especially under distributional shifts. Unlike traditional uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Fred Xu , Thomas Markovich

Neural networks are ubiquitous in many tasks, but trusting their predictions is an open issue. Uncertainty quantification is required for many applications, and disentangled aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are best. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-21 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Daniel Saromo