Related papers: Bayesian Power Steering: An Effective Approach for…

Data point selection (DPS) is becoming a critical topic in deep learning due to the ease of acquiring uncurated training data compared to the difficulty of obtaining curated or processed data. Existing approaches to DPS are predominantly…

This paper reviews background and examples of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS), and develops details in a subset of BPS mixture models. BPS expands on standard Bayesian model uncertainty analysis for model mixing to provide a broader…

We present Bayesian Diffusion Models (BDM), a prediction algorithm that performs effective Bayesian inference by tightly coupling the top-down (prior) information with the bottom-up (data-driven) procedure via joint diffusion processes. We…

Decision-guided perspectives on model uncertainty expand traditional statistical thinking about managing, comparing and combining inferences from sets of models. Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) advances conceptual and…

We develop the methodology and a detailed case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the recently introduced foundational framework of BPS to the…

Bayesian optimization (BO) has contributed greatly to improving model performance by suggesting promising hyperparameter configurations iteratively based on observations from multiple training trials. However, only partial knowledge (i.e.,…

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Predictive coding (PC) is an influential theory of information processing in the brain, providing a biologically plausible alternative to backpropagation. It is motivated in terms of Bayesian inference, as hidden states and parameters are…

Large-scale pre-trained language models have achieved impressive results on a wide range of downstream tasks recently. However, fine-tuning an extremely large-scale pre-trained language model on limited target datasets is often plagued by…

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) are powerful generative models that have achieved unparalleled success in a number of generative tasks. In this work, we aim to build inductive biases into the training and sampling of diffusion models…

The Bayesian expected power (BEP) has become increasingly popular in sample size determination and assessment of the probability of success (POS) for a future trial. The BEP takes into consideration the uncertainty around the parameters…

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning has generated significant interest in the AI community as it provides an elegant solution to the optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in classical reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, the…

Forecasting multiscale chaotic dynamical systems, such as turbulent flows, with deep learning remains a formidable challenge due to the spectral bias of neural networks, which hinders the accurate representation of fine-scale structures in…

interpretable, and well understood models that are routinely employed even though, as is revealed through prior and posterior predictive checks, these can poorly characterise the spatial heterogeneity in the underlying process of interest.…

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

This study investigates Bayesian ensemble learning for improving the quality of decision-making. We consider a decision-maker who selects an action from a set of candidates based on a policy trained using observations. In our setting, we…

Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) provides a method for combining multiple predictive distributions based on agent/expert opinion analysis theory and encompasses a range of existing density forecast pooling methods. The key ingredient in…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample efficient approach to automatically tune the hyperparameters of machine learning models. In practice, one frequently has to solve similar hyperparameter tuning problems sequentially. For example, one…

Bayesian Last Layer (BLL) models focus solely on uncertainty in the output layer of neural networks, demonstrating comparable performance to more complex Bayesian models. However, the use of Gaussian priors for last layer weights in…