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We use asymptotic methods from the theory of differential equations to obtain an analytical expression for the survival probability of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a potential defined over a broad domain. We form a uniformly…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-26 L. T. Giorgini , W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

We prove some efficient inference results concerning estimation of a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck regression model, which is driven by a non-Gaussian stable Levy process and where the output process is observed at high-frequency over a fixed time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Hiroki Masuda

This paper aims to derive accurate asymptotic estimates for the exit time probabilities of scalar Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) bridges. The exit time probabilities are expressed as an asymptotic series in powers of a small parameter that…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Feng Zhao , Yang Li , Jianlong Wang , Xianbin Liu , Dongping Jin

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is interpreted as Brownian motion in a harmonic potential. This Gaussian Markov process has a bounded variance and admits a stationary probability distribution, in contrast to the standard Brownian motion. It…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-07 Pece Trajanovski , Petar Jolakoski , Kiril Zelenkovski , Alexander Iomin , Ljupco Kocarev , Trifce Sandev

We investigate the joint distribution and the multivariate survival functions for the maxima of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in consecutive time-intervals. A PDE method, alongside an eigenfunction expansion, is adopted with which we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-19 Yupeng Jiang , Andrea Macrina , Gareth W. Peters

Using the path integral representation of the non-equilibrium dynamics, we compute the most probable path between arbitrary starting and final points, followed by an active particle driven by persistent noise. We focus our attention on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-15 Andrea Crisanti , Matteo Paoluzzi

Tight estimates of exit/containment probabilities are of particular importance in many control problems. Yet, estimating the exit/containment probabilities is non-trivial: even for linear systems (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes), the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-10 Quang-Cuong Pham , Bastien Mallein , Jean-Jacques Slotine

We evaluate the steady-state distribution and escape rate for an Active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Particle (AOUP) using methods from the theory of large deviations. The calculation is carried out both for small and large memory times of the active…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-08-31 Eric Woillez , Yariv Kafri , Vivien Lecomte

We study the first-passage dynamics of a non-Markovian stochastic process with time-averaged feedback, which we model as a one-dimensional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process wherein the particle drift is modified by the empirical mean of its…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-16 Francesco Coghi , Romain Duvezin , John S. Wettlaufer

The first-passage problem of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to a boundary is a long-standing problem with no known closed-form solution except in specific cases. Taking this as a starting-point, and extending to a general mean-reverting…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2020-02-27 R. J. Martin , M. J. Kearney , R. V. Craster

The Fokker--Planck equation is a key ingredient of many models in physics, and related subjects, and arises in a diverse array of settings. Analytical solutions are limited to special cases, and resorting to numerical simulation is often…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2019-02-20 R. J. Martin , R. V. Craster , A. Pannier , M. J. Kearney

We consider the area functional defined by the integral of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process which starts from a given value and ends at the time it first reaches zero (its equilibrium level). Exact results are presented for the mean, variance,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-05 Michael J. Kearney , Richard J. Martin

It is considered Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $ x_t = x_0 e^{-\theta t} + \mu (1-e^{-\theta t}) + \sigma \int_0^t e^{-\theta (t-s)} dW_s$, where $x_0 \in R$, $\theta>0$, $ \mu \in R$ and $\sigma > 0$ are parameters. By use values $(z_k)_{k…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-30 Levan Labadze , Gogi Pantsulaia

In this paper, we study the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge process (i.e. the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process conditioned to start and end at fixed points) constraints to have a fixed area under its path. We present both anticipative (in this case, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-10-11 Alain Mazzolo

By employing a path integral formulation, we obtain the entropy production rate for a system of active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck particles (AOUP) both in the presence and in the absence of thermal noise. The present treatment clarifies some…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-09-04 Lorenzo Caprini , Umberto Marini Bettolo Marconi , Andrea Puglisi , Angelo Vulpiani

We consider the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, a stochastic process widely used in finance, physics, and biology. Parameter estimation of the OU process is a challenging problem. Thus, we review traditional tracking methods and compare…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-24 Jacob Fein-Ashley

\noindent \textbf{Abstract}: We consider the parameter estimation problem for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X$ driven by a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $V$, i.e. the pair of processes defined by the non-Markovian continuous-time…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-14 Brahim El Onsy , Khalifa Es-Sebaiy , Frederi G. Viens

We consider the parametric estimation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'{e}vy process with the stable index $\alpha>1$ and possibly skewed jumps, based on a discrete-time sample over a fixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Eitaro Kawamo , Hiroki Masuda

In the paper we consider the problem of estimating parameters entering the drift of a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process in the non-ergodic case, when the underlying stochastic integral is of Young type. We consider the sampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-20 Radomyra Shevchenko , Jeannette H. C. Woerner

Given the observation of a high-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in continuous time, we proceed to the inference of the drift parameter under a row-sparsity assumption. Towards that aim, we consider the negative log-likelihood of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-12 Stéphane Gaïffas , Gustaw Matulewicz
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