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Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Carrie J. Lei-Cramer , Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

We construct a Gaussian random field (GRF) that combines fractional smoothness with spatially varying anisotropy. The GRF is defined through a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE), where the range, marginal variance, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Elling Svee , Geir-Arne Fuglstad

We introduce a guided stochastic sampling method that augments sampling from diffusion models with physics-based guidance derived from partial differential equation (PDE) residuals and observational constraints, ensuring generated samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Andrew Millard , Fredrik Lindsten , Zheng Zhao

Obtaining high-resolution maps of precipitation data can provide key insights to stakeholders to assess a sustainable access to water resources at urban scale. Mapping a nonstationary, sparse process such as precipitation at very high…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-08 Jiachen Zhang , Matthew Bonas , Diogo Bolster , Geir-Arne Fuglstad , Stefano Castruccio

Accurate forecasting of spatiotemporal data remains challenging due to complex spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. The inherent uncertainty and variability in such data often render deterministic models insufficient, prompting a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Mingze Gong , Lei Chen , Jia Li

Nonlinear dynamical stochastic models are ubiquitous in different areas. Excitable media models are typical examples with large state dimensions. Their statistical properties are often of great interest but are also very challenging to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-29 Nan Chen , Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

Diffusion (score-based) generative models have been widely used for modeling various types of complex data, including images, audios, and point clouds. Recently, the deep connection between forward-backward stochastic differential equations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Weitao Du , Tao Yang , He Zhang , Yuanqi Du

A non-stationary Gaussian random field model is developed based on a combination of the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach and the classical deformation method. With the deformation method, a stationary field is…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-01 Anders Hildeman , David Bolin , Igor Rychlik

We propose a novel sparse spatiotemporal dynamic generalized linear model for efficient inference and prediction of bicycle count data. Assuming Poisson distributed counts with spacetime-varying rates, we model the log-rate using…

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are the mathematical tool of choice for modelling spatiotemporal PDE-dynamics under the influence of randomness. Based on the notion of mild solution of an SPDE, we introduce a novel neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-27 Cristopher Salvi , Maud Lemercier , Andris Gerasimovics

This paper investigates the modeling of an important class of degradation data, which are collected from a spatial domain over time; for example, the surface quality degradation. Like many existing time-dependent stochastic degradation…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-29 Xiao Liu , Kyongmin Yeo , Jayant Kalagnanam

We propose a new method for spatio-temporal forecasting on arbitrarily distributed points. Assuming that the observed system follows an unknown partial differential equation, we derive a continuous-time model for the dynamics of the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-18 Marten Lienen , Stephan Günnemann

Diffusion models (DMs) represent state-of-the-art generative models for continuous inputs. DMs work by constructing a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) in the input space (ie, position space), and using a neural network to reverse it.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Tianrong Chen , Jiatao Gu , Laurent Dinh , Evangelos A. Theodorou , Joshua Susskind , Shuangfei Zhai

This paper proposes a novel low-rank approximation to the multivariate State-Space Model. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach is applied component-wise to the independent-in-time Mat\'ern Gaussian innovation term in…

Fine-grained air pollution forecasting is crucial for urban management and the development of healthy buildings. Deploying portable sensors on mobile platforms such as cars and buses offers a low-cost, easy-to-maintain, and wide-coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Nan Zhou , Weijie Hong , Huandong Wang , Jianfeng Zheng , Qiuhua Wang , Yali Song , Xiao-Ping Zhang , Yong Li , Xinlei Chen

A framework to establish response theory for a class of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) is provided. More specifically, it is shown that for a certain class of observables, the averages of those observables…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-10-24 Giulia Carigi , Tobias Kuna , Jochen Bröcker

Motivated by the modeling of three-dimensional fluid turbulence, we define and study a class of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) that are randomly stirred by a spatially smooth and uncorrelated in time forcing term. To…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-24 Gabriel B. Apolinário , Laurent Chevillard , Jean-Christophe Mourrat

Gaussian random fields with Mat\'ern covariance functions are popular models in spatial statistics and machine learning. In this work, we develop a spatio-temporal extension of the Gaussian Mat\'ern fields formulated as solutions to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-06 Finn Lindgren , Haakon Bakka , David Bolin , Elias Krainski , Håvard Rue

Subsurface flows are commonly modeled by advection-diffusion equations. Insufficient measurements or uncertain material procurement may be accounted for by random coefficients. To represent, for example, transitions in heterogeneous media,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-01-25 Andrea Barth , Andreas Stein

The importance of modelling temperature fields goes beyond the need to understand a region's climate and serves too as a starting point for understanding their socioeconomic, and health consequences. The topography of the study region…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-05 Camila M. Casquilho-Resende , Nhu D. Le , James V. Zidek