Related papers: Discrete Autoregressive Switching Processes with C…

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…

Most estimates for penalised linear regression can be viewed as posterior modes for an appropriate choice of prior distribution. Bayesian shrinkage methods, particularly the horseshoe estimator, have recently attracted a great deal of…

We propose a novel class of dynamic shrinkage processes for Bayesian time series and regression analysis. Building upon a global-local framework of prior construction, in which continuous scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions are…

Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…

Predictive inference in the sparse Gaussian sequence model has received considerably less attention than its non-sparse, finite-sample counterpart. Existing work has largely been confined to discrete mixture priors. In this paper, we study…

We propose Bayesian methods for Gaussian graphical models that lead to sparse and adaptively shrunk estimators of the precision (inverse covariance) matrix. Our methods are based on lasso-type regularization priors leading to parsimonious…

Currently several Bayesian approaches are available to estimate large sparse precision matrices, including Bayesian graphical Lasso (Wang, 2012), Bayesian structure learning (Banerjee and Ghosal, 2015), and graphical horseshoe (Li et al.,…

The new class of Markov processes is proposed to realize the flexible shrinkage effects for the dynamic models. The transition density of the new process consists of two penalty functions, similarly to Bayesian fused LASSO in its functional…

Many existing shrinkage approaches for time-varying parameter (TVP) models assume constant innovation variances across time points, inducing sparsity by shrinking these variances toward zero. However, this assumption falls short when states…

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

Precision matrices are crucial in many fields such as social networks, neuroscience, and economics, representing the edge structure of Gaussian graphical models (GGMs), where a zero in an off-diagonal position of the precision matrix…

We consider the problem of learning the structure of a high dimensional precision matrix under sparsity assumptions. We propose to use a shrinkage prior, called the DL-graphical prior based on the Dirichlet-Laplace prior used for the…

Autoregressive models are ubiquitous tools for the analysis of time series in many domains such as computational neuroscience and biomedical engineering. In these domains, data is, for example, collected from measurements of brain activity.…

Deep Gaussian processes have recently been proposed as natural objects to fit, similarly to deep neural networks, possibly complex features present in modern data samples, such as compositional structures. Adopting a Bayesian nonparametric…

Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional…

Modern approaches to perform Bayesian variable selection rely mostly on the use of shrinkage priors. That said, an ideal shrinkage prior should be adaptive to different signal levels, ensuring that small effects are ruled out, while keeping…

We develop a mixture model for transition density approximation, together with soft model selection, in the presence of noisy and heterogeneous nonlinear dynamics. Our model builds on the Gaussian mixture transition distribution (MTD) model…

Gaussian Process state-space models capture complex temporal dependencies in a principled manner by placing a Gaussian Process prior on the transition function. These models have a natural interpretation as discretized stochastic…

The cumulative shrinkage process is an increasing shrinkage prior that can be employed within models in which additional terms are supposed to play a progressively negligible role. A natural application is to Gaussian factor models, where…

Modeling multivariate time series as temporal signals over a (possibly dynamic) graph is an effective representational framework that allows for developing models for time series analysis. In fact, discrete sequences of graphs can be…