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When using complex Bayesian models to combine information, the checking for consistency of the information being combined is good statistical practice. Here a new method is developed for detecting prior-data conflicts in Bayesian models…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-29 David J. Nott , Xueou Wang , Michael Evans , Berthold-Georg Englert

An understanding of quantum theory in terms of new, underlying descriptions capable of explaining the existence of non-classical correlations, non-commutativity of measurements and other unique and counter-intuitive phenomena remains still…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-05-12 Yasmin Navarrete , Sergio Davis

This paper develops new insights into quantitative methods for the validation of computational model prediction. Four types of methods are investigated, namely classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing, a reliability-based method, and an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-06-25 You Ling , Sankaran Mahadevan

This paper studies implications of the consistency conditions among prior, posteriors, and information sets on introspective properties of qualitative belief induced from information sets. The main result reformulates the consistency…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Satoshi Fukuda

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-29 Pier Giovanni Bissiri , Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Ryan Martin

For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…

Computation · Statistics 2011-07-04 Chris Barnes , Sarah Filippi , Michael P. H. Stumpf , Thomas Thorne

We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Jeong Eun Lee , Geoff K. Nicholls , Robin J. Ryder

We consider the problem of assessing goodness of fit of a single Bayesian model to the observed data in the inverse problem context. A novel procedure of goodness of fit test is proposed, based on construction of reference distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-04 Sourabh Bhattacharya

I describe a method of inferring the past of quantum observables given the initial state and the subsequent measurement results using Wigner quasi-probability representations. The method is proved to be compatible with logic for large…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-04-02 Mankei Tsang

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Shouhao Zhou

In this perspective we discuss verification of quantum devices in the context of specific examples, formulated as proposed experiments. Our first example is verification of analog quantum simulators as Hamiltonian learning, where the input…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-04-12 Jose Carrasco , Andreas Elben , Christian Kokail , Barbara Kraus , Peter Zoller

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables statistical inference in simulator-based models whose likelihoods are difficult to calculate but easy to simulate from. ABC constructs a kernel-type approximation to the posterior distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Yuexi Wang , Tetsuya Kaji , Veronika Ročková

The uncertainty principle bounds the uncertainties about incompatible measurements, clearly setting quantum theory apart from the classical world. Its mathematical formulation via uncertainty relations, plays an irreplaceable role in…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-08-22 Yunlong Xiao , Kun Fang , Gilad Gour

The goal of this paper is to explore the basic Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm via the lens of information theory. ABC is a widely used algorithm in cases where the likelihood of the data is hard to work with or…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-14 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-21 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nadja Klein

We present the elements of a new approach to the foundations of quantum theory and probability theory which is based on the algebraic approach to integration, information geometry, and maximum relative entropy methods. It enables us to deal…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2011-09-13 Ryszard Paweł Kostecki

A common assumption in belief revision is that the reliability of the information sources is either given, derived from temporal information, or the same for all. This article does not describe a new semantics for integration but the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-04-09 Paolo Liberatore

Quantum communication is often investigated in scenarios where only the dimension of Hilbert space is known. However, assigning a precise dimension is often an approximation of what is actually a higher-dimensional process. Here, we…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-03-08 Jef Pauwels , Stefano Pironio , Erik Woodhead , Armin Tavakoli

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Jeong Eun Lee , Sitong Liu , Geoff K. Nicholls