Related papers: Continuous-time modeling and bootstrap for chain-l…

We show that bootstrap methods based on the positivity of probability measures provide a systematic framework for studying both synchronous and asynchronous nonequilibrium stochastic processes on infinite lattices. First, we formulate…

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Pooled logistic regression models are commonly applied in survival analysis. However, the standard implementation can be computationally demanding, which is further exacerbated when using the nonparametric bootstrap for inference. To ease…

The bootstrap is a popular method of constructing confidence intervals due to its ease of use and broad applicability. Theoretical properties of bootstrap procedures have been established in a variety of settings. However, there is limited…

The correct inferential object in claims reserving is the conditional predictive distribution $p(R \mid \mathcal{D}, \hat\theta)$, where $\mathcal{D}$ is the observed triangle held fixed. We refer to this as the conditioning principle. All…

We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…

In an earlier paper, a randomized load balancing model was studied in a heavy traffic asymptotic regime where the load balancing stream is thin compared to the total arrival stream. It was shown that the limit is given by a system of…

This paper develops valid bootstrap inference methods for the dynamic short panel threshold regression. We show that the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent for the first-differenced generalized method of moments (GMM)…

We develop a new approach for estimating the risk of an arbitrary estimator of the mean vector in the classical normal means problem. The key idea is to generate two auxiliary data vectors, by adding carefully constructed normal noise…

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Bootstrap is an idea that imposing consistency conditions on a physical system may lead to rigorous and nontrivial statements about its physical observables. In this work, we discuss the bootstrap problem for the invariant measure of the…

The widely recommended procedure of Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the M-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation…

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

We consider a stochastic process which is (a) described by a continuous-time Markov chain on only short time-scales and (b) constrained to conserve a number of hidden quantities on long time-scales. We assume that the transition matrix of…

In this work, we propose a novel deep bootstrap framework for nonparametric regression based on conditional diffusion models. Specifically, we construct a conditional diffusion model to learn the distribution of the response variable given…

We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which…

A novel procedure is described for accelerating the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo computations. The algorithm uses an adaptive bootstrap technique to generate candidate steps in the Markov Chain. It is efficient for symmetric,…

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

The logistic regression analysis proposed by Schouten et al. (Stat Med. 1993;12:1733-1745) has been a standard method in current statistical analysis of case-cohort studies, and it enables effective estimation of risk ratio from selected…

In this paper we investigate how the bootstrap can be applied to time series regressions when the volatility of the innovations is random and non-stationary. The volatility of many economic and financial time series displays persistent…