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Bayesian optimization (BO) based on Gaussian process models is a powerful paradigm to optimize black-box functions that are expensive to evaluate. While several BO algorithms provably converge to the global optimum of the unknown function,…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions, commonly based on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models. Its effectiveness relies on uncertainty quantification that is both sharp…

The PC algorithm is a popular method for learning the structure of Gaussian Bayesian networks. It carries out statistical tests to determine absent edges in the network. It is hence governed by two parameters: (i) The type of test, and (ii)…

Obtaining heteroscedastic predictive uncertainties from a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) is vital to many applications. Often, heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties are learned as outputs of the BNN in addition to the predictive means,…

This paper concerns the study of optimal (supremum and infimum) uncertainty bounds for systems where the input (or prior) probability measure is only partially/imperfectly known (e.g., with only statistical moments and/or on a coarse…

A Bayesian net (BN) is more than a succinct way to encode a probabilistic distribution; it also corresponds to a function used to answer queries. A BN can therefore be evaluated by the accuracy of the answers it returns. Many algorithms for…

This paper proposes a sparse Bayesian treatment of deep neural networks (DNNs) for system identification. Although DNNs show impressive approximation ability in various fields, several challenges still exist for system identification…

Bayesian optimization is a methodology for global optimization of unknown and expensive objectives. It combines a surrogate Bayesian regression model with an acquisition function to decide where to evaluate the objective. Typical regression…

Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded…

This work theoretically studies stochastic neural networks, a main type of neural network in use. We prove that as the width of an optimized stochastic neural network tends to infinity, its predictive variance on the training set decreases…

Bayesian Optimization algorithm has become a promising approach for nonlinear global optimization problems and many machine learning applications. Over the past few years, improvements and enhancements have been brought forward and they…

Data-driven techniques have improved the accuracy of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models in fluid dynamics. However, modeling separated flows remains challenging due to their complex physics and sensitivity to local conditions.…

Bayesian optimisation is a popular method for efficient optimisation of expensive black-box functions. Traditionally, BO assumes that the search space is known. However, in many problems, this assumption does not hold. To this end, we…

In this paper the application of uncertainty modeling to convolutional neural networks is evaluated. A novel method for adjusting the network's predictions based on uncertainty information is introduced. This allows the network to be either…

In the last years decision-focused learning framework, also known as predict-and-optimize, have received increasing attention. In this setting, the predictions of a machine learning model are used as estimated cost coefficients in the…

The application of artificial intelligence (AI) models in fields such as engineering is limited by the known difficulty of quantifying the reliability of an AI's decision. A well-calibrated AI model must correctly report its accuracy on…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a powerful approach for time series prediction. However, their performance is strongly affected by their architecture and hyperparameter settings. The architecture optimization of RNNs is a…

Modern neural network architectures have achieved remarkable accuracies but remain highly dependent on their training data, often lacking interpretability in their learned mappings. While effective on large datasets, they tend to overfit on…

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a formalism to quantify and calibrate uncertainty in deep learning. Current inference approaches for BNNs often resort to few-sample estimation for scalability, which can harm predictive performance,…