Related papers: Identification of structural shocks in Bayesian VE…
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…
Spatial count data models are used to explain and predict the frequency of phenomena such as traffic accidents in geographically distinct entities such as census tracts or road segments. These models are typically estimated using Bayesian…
When statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the…
Large VARs are increasingly used in structural analysis as a unified framework to study the impacts of multiple structural shocks simultaneously. However, the concurrent identification of multiple shocks using sign and ranking restrictions…
We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…
This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…
HYGARCH model is basically used to model long-range dependence in volatility. We propose Markov switch smooth-transition HYGARCH model, where the volatility in each state is a time-dependent convex combination of GARCH and FIGARCH. This…
Bayesian methods are critical for quantifying the behaviors of systems. They capture our uncertainty about a system's behavior using probability distributions and update this understanding as new information becomes available. Probabilistic…
As a regression technique in spatial statistics, the spatiotemporally varying coefficient model (STVC) is an important tool for discovering nonstationary and interpretable response-covariate associations over both space and time. However,…
Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…
We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…
Assessing the practical identifiability of epidemic models is essential for determining whether parameters can be meaningfully estimated from observed data. Monte Carlo (MC) methods provide an accessible and intuitive framework; however,…
This paper discusses the efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate factor stochastic volatility (Factor MSV) model with leverage. We propose a novel approach to construct the sampling schemes that converges to the posterior…
We developed a novel approach to identification and model testing in linear structural equation models (SEMs) based on auxiliary variables (AVs), which generalizes a widely-used family of methods known as instrumental variables. The…
Although multivariate stochastic volatility models usually produce more accurate forecasts compared to the MGARCH models, their estimation techniques such as Bayesian MCMC typically suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a fast…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
In this paper, we present an approach to identify linear parameter-varying (LPV) systems with a state-space (SS) model structure in an innovation form where the coefficient functions have static and affine dependency on the scheduling…
Many real-world systems are described not only by data from a single source but via multiple data views. In genomic medicine, for instance, patients can be characterized by data from different molecular layers. Latent variable models with…
We develop a Bayesian variable selection method, called SVEN, based on a hierarchical Gaussian linear model with priors placed on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. Sparsity is achieved by using degenerate spike…