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Online experiments such as Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) or A/B-tests are the bread and butter of modern platforms on the web. They are conducted continuously to allow platforms to estimate the causal effect of replacing system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-24 Olivier Jeunen

In the absence of randomized controlled and natural experiments, it is necessary to balance the distributions of (observable) covariates of the treated and control groups in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of a causal effect of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-02 Martin Cousineau , Vedat Verter , Susan A. Murphy , Joelle Pineau

Many existing approaches to generalizing statistical inference amidst distribution shift operate under the covariate shift assumption, which posits that the conditional distribution of unobserved variables given observable ones is invariant…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-13 Ying Jin , Naoki Egami , Dominik Rothenhäusler

The standard approach to causal modelling especially in social and health sciences is the potential outcomes framework due to Neyman and Rubin. In this framework, observations are thought to be drawn from a distribution over variables of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Benedikt Höltgen , Robert C. Williamson

In clinical trials, inferences on clinical outcomes are often made conditional on specific selective processes. For instance, only when a treatment demonstrates a significant effect on the primary outcome, further analysis is conducted to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Tianyu Pan , Vivek Charu , Ying Lu , Lu Tian

A randomized controlled trial (RCT) is widely regarded as the gold standard for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention, assuming perfect implementation. In practice, however, randomization can be compromised for various…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Yin Tang , Yanyuan Ma , Jiwei Zhao

Recent empirical studies have explored the idea of continuing to train a model at test-time for a given task, known as test-time training (TTT), and have found it to yield significant performance improvements. However, there is limited…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Jonas Hübotter , Patrik Wolf , Alexander Shevchenko , Dennis Jüni , Andreas Krause , Gil Kur

Frequentists' inference often delivers point estimators associated with confidence intervals or sets for parameters of interest. Constructing the confidence intervals or sets requires understanding the sampling distributions of the point…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-18 Xinran Li , Peng Ding

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-27 Fredrik D. Johansson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for comparing the effectiveness of a new treatment to the current one (the control). Most RCTs allocate the patients to the treatment group and the control group by uniform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-22 Onur Atan , William R. Zame , Mihaela van der Schaar

In statistical inference, it is rarely realistic that the hypothesized statistical model is well-specified, and consequently it is important to understand the effects of misspecification on inferential procedures. When the hypothesized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Beomjo Park , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Kentaro Hoffman , Stephen Salerno , Awan Afiaz , Jeffrey T. Leek , Tyler H. McCormick

Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Ernest Fokoué

Machine learning is increasingly used to select which individuals receive limited-resource interventions in domains such as human services, education, development, and more. However, it is often not apparent what the right quantity is for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Vibhhu Sharma , Bryan Wilder

Combining observational and experimental data for causal inference can improve treatment effect estimation. However, many observational data sets cannot be released due to data privacy considerations, so one researcher may not have access…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-26 Charlotte Z. Mann , Adam C. Sales , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

Generalizability and transportability methods have been proposed to address the external validity bias of randomized clinical trials that results from differences in the distribution of treatment effect modifiers between trial and target…

Social media is nearly ubiquitous in modern life, raising concerns about its societal impacts -- from mental health and polarization to violence and democratic disruption. Yet research on its causal effects is still inconclusive: Various…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Joseph B. Bak-Coleman , Stephan Lewandowsky , Philipp Lorenz-Spreen , Arvind Narayanan , Amy Orben , Lisa Oswald

Adjusting for (baseline) covariates with working regression models becomes standard practice in the analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCT). When the dimension $p$ of the covariates is large relative to the sample size $n$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Yujia Gu , Lin Liu , Wei Ma