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Stochastic forecasting is critical for efficient decision-making in uncertain systems, such as energy markets and finance, where estimating the full distribution of future scenarios is essential. We propose Diffusion Scenario Tree (DST), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Stelios Zarifis , Ioannis Kordonis , Petros Maragos

Time series prediction is a widespread and well studied problem with applications in many domains (medical, geoscience, network analysis, finance, econometry etc.). In the case of multivariate time series, the key to good performances is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Darko Drakulic , Jean-Marc Andreoli

Diffusion models have shown a great ability at bridging the performance gap between predictive and generative approaches for speech enhancement. We have shown that they may even outperform their predictive counterparts for non-additive…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-13 Jean-Marie Lemercier , Julius Richter , Simon Welker , Timo Gerkmann

Time series forecasting in specialized domains is often constrained by limited data availability, where conventional models typically require large-scale datasets to effectively capture underlying temporal dynamics. To tackle this few-shot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Haonan Shi , Dehua Shuai , Liming Wang , Xiyang Liu , Long Tian

Diffusion models, which leverage stochastic processes to capture complex data distributions effectively, have shown their performance as generative models, achieving notable success in image-related tasks through iterative denoising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Toshihide Ubukata , Jialong Li , Kenji Tei

We propose an unsupervised anomaly detection approach based on a physics-informed diffusion model for multivariate time series data. Over the past years, diffusion model has demonstrated its effectiveness in forecasting, imputation,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Juhi Soni , Markus Lange-Hegermann , Stefan Windmann

Diffusion models have risen to prominence in time series forecasting, showcasing their robust capability to model complex data distributions. However, their effectiveness in deterministic predictions is often constrained by instability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Hao Yang , Zhanbo Feng , Feng Zhou , Robert C Qiu , Zenan Ling

We propose a novel denoising diffusion generative model for predicting nonlinear fluid fields named FluidDiff. By performing a diffusion process, the model is able to learn a complex representation of the high-dimensional dynamic system,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Gefan Yang , Stefan Sommer

Kinematic sensors are often used to analyze movement behaviors in sports and daily activities due to their ease of use and lack of spatial restrictions, unlike video-based motion capturing systems. Still, the generation, and especially the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Heiko Oppel , Michael Munz

Deep learning has shown impressive results in a variety of time series forecasting tasks, where modeling the conditional distribution of the future given the past is the essence. However, when this conditional distribution is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Siqi Liu , Andreas Lehrmann

Time series generation focuses on modeling the underlying data distribution and resampling to produce authentic time series data. Key components, such as trend and seasonality, drive temporal fluctuations, yet many existing approaches fail…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Zixuan Ma , Chenfeng Huang

Earth system forecasting has traditionally relied on complex physical models that are computationally expensive and require significant domain expertise. In the past decade, the unprecedented increase in spatiotemporal Earth observation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-29 Zhihan Gao , Xingjian Shi , Boran Han , Hao Wang , Xiaoyong Jin , Danielle Maddix , Yi Zhu , Mu Li , Yuyang Wang

Diffusion models, initially developed for image synthesis, demonstrate remarkable generative capabilities. Recently, their application has expanded to time series forecasting (TSF), yielding promising results. Existing surveys on time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-03 Chen Su , Zhengzhou Cai , Yuanhe Tian , Zhuochao Chang , Zihong Zheng , Yan Song

Diffusion models have shown promise in forecasting future data from multivariate time series. However, few existing methods account for recurring structures, or patterns, that appear within the data. We present Pattern-Guided Diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Vivian Lin , Kuk Jin Jang , Wenwen Si , Insup Lee

In this work, we propose \texttt{TimeGrad}, an autoregressive model for multivariate probabilistic time series forecasting which samples from the data distribution at each time step by estimating its gradient. To this end, we use diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-09 Kashif Rasul , Calvin Seward , Ingmar Schuster , Roland Vollgraf

Scenario-based probabilistic forecasts have become vital for decision-makers in handling intermittent renewable energies. This paper presents a recent promising deep learning generative approach called denoising diffusion probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Esteban Hernandez Capel , Jonathan Dumas

Stochastic diffusion is the noisy and uncertain process through which dynamics like epidemics, or agents like animal species, disperse over a larger area. Understanding these processes is becoming increasingly important as we attempt to…

Complex behaviour in many systems arises from the stochastic interactions of spatially distributed particles or agents. Stochastic reaction-diffusion processes are widely used to model such behaviour in disciplines ranging from biology to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-23 David Schnoerr , Ramon Grima , Guido Sanguinetti

Due to the dynamics of underlying physics and external influences, the uncertainty of time series often varies over time. However, existing Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) often fail to capture this non-stationary nature,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Weiwei Ye , Zhuopeng Xu , Ning Gui

Diffusions are a successful technique to sample from high-dimensional distributions. The target distribution can be either explicitly given or learnt from a collection of samples. They implement a diffusion process whose endpoint is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Andrea Montanari