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Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

In the realm of supervised learning, Bayesian learning has shown robust predictive capabilities under input and parameter perturbations. Inspired by these findings, we demonstrate the robustness properties of Bayesian learning in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Nardos Ayele Ashenafi , Wankun Sirichotiyakul , Aykut C. Satici

The reliable operation of a power distribution system relies on a good prior knowledge of its topology and its system state. Although crucial, due to the lack of direct monitoring devices on the switch statuses, the topology information is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-19 Yijun Xu , Jaber Valinejad , Mert Korkali , Lamine Mili , Yajun Wang , Xiao Chen , Zongsheng Zheng

Sequential techniques can enhance the efficiency of the approximate Bayesian computation algorithm, as in Sisson et al.'s (2007) partial rejection control version. While this method is based upon the theoretical works of Del Moral et al.…

Computation · Statistics 2010-10-11 Mark A. Beaumont , Jean-Marie Cornuet , Jean-Michel Marin , Christian P. Robert

This study introduces an approach to estimate the uncertainty in bibliometric indicator values that is caused by data errors. This approach utilizes Bayesian regression models, estimated from empirical data samples, which are used to…

Digital Libraries · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Paul Donner

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-10 Marko Mlikota , Frank Schorfheide

Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Mahdi Nouraie , Connor Smith , Samuel Muller

A common problem in disciplines of applied Statistics research such as Astrostatistics is of estimating the posterior distribution of relevant parameters. Typically, the likelihoods for such models are computed via expensive experiments…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-07 Kirthevasan Kandasamy , Jeff Schneider , Barnabás Póczos

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-15 Bradley Efron

We propose a general method for distributed Bayesian model choice, using the marginal likelihood, where a data set is split in non-overlapping subsets. These subsets are only accessed locally by individual workers and no data is shared…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-18 Alexander Buchholz , Daniel Ahfock , Sylvia Richardson

Mathematical models are invaluable for understanding and predicting how biological systems behave, although their construction requires specifying mechanisms and relationships that are often not perfectly known. In the presence of multiple…

This paper discusses the challenges presented by tall data problems associated with Bayesian classification (specifically binary classification) and the existing methods to handle them. Current methods include parallelizing the likelihood,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-22 Richard D. Payne , Bani K. Mallick

Failure probabilities for grid components are often estimated using parametric models which can capitalize on operational grid data. This work formulates a Bayesian hierarchical framework designed to integrate data and domain expertise to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-22 Laurel N. Dunn , Ioanna Kavvada , Mathilde Badoual , Scott J. Moura

In this paper, we study the impact of combining profile and network data in a de-duplication setting. We also assess the influence of a range of prior distributions on the linkage structure. Furthermore, we explore stochastic gradient…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-17 Juan Sosa , Abel Rodriguez

In this chapter, we review some of the most standard MCMC tools used in Bayesian computation, along with vignettes on standard misunderstandings of these approaches taken from Q \&~A's on the forum Cross-validated answered by the first…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-20 Christian P. Robert , Wu Changye

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira , Gustau Camps-Valls

Gaussian processes are the gold standard for many real-world modeling problems, especially in cases where a model's success hinges upon its ability to faithfully represent predictive uncertainty. These problems typically exist as parts of…

Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-11-08 Jianguo Ding

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a highly effective tool for the safe online optimization of systems, due to its high sample efficiency and noise robustness. To further enhance its efficiency, reduced physical models of the system can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Jannis O. Lübsen , Christian Hespe , Annika Eichler

We propose a general solution to the problem of robust Bayesian inference in complex settings where outliers may be present. In practice, the automation of robust Bayesian analyses is important in the many applications involving large and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Jeremie Houssineau , David J. Nott
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