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Recent advances have clarified theoretical learning accuracy in Bayesian inference, revealing that the asymptotic behavior of metrics such as generalization loss and free energy, assessing predictive accuracy, is dictated by a rational…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Yuki Kurumadani

Watanabe's singular learning theory provides a framework for asymptotic analysis of Bayesian model selection for statistical models with singularities, where traditional statistical regularity assumptions fail. Learning coefficients, also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-20 Mathias Drton , Elizabeth Gross , Dimitra Kosta , Anton Leykin , Seth Sullivant , Daniel Windisch

Three-layer neural networks are known to form singular learning models, and their Bayesian asymptotic behavior is governed by the learning coefficient, or real log canonical threshold. Although this quantity has been clarified for regular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Yuki Kurumadani

The log canonical threshold (lct) is a fundamental invariant in birational geometry, essential for understanding the complexity of singularities in algebraic varieties. Its real counterpart, the real log canonical threshold (rlct), also…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2026-01-15 Dimitra Kosta , Daniel Windisch

The \textit{local learning coefficient} (LLC) is a principled way of quantifying model complexity, originally derived in the context of Bayesian statistics using singular learning theory (SLT). Several methods are known for numerically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Zach Furman , Edmund Lau

Evaluation of the marginal likelihood plays an important role in model selection problems. The widely applicable Bayesian information criterion (WBIC) and singular Bayesian information criterion (sBIC) give approximations to the log…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-28 Toru Imai

The goal of a learning algorithm is to receive a training data set as input and provide a hypothesis that can generalize to all possible data points from a domain set. The hypothesis is chosen from hypothesis classes with potentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-29 Soosan Beheshti , Mahdi Shamsi

Bayes statistics and statistical physics have the common mathematical structure, where the log likelihood function corresponds to the random Hamiltonian. Recently, it was discovered that the asymptotic learning curves in Bayes estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-18 Sumio Watanabe

Learning from label proportions (LLP) is a generalization of supervised learning in which the training data is available as sets or bags of feature-vectors (instances) along with the average instance-label of each bag. The goal is to train…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Anand Brahmbhatt , Rishi Saket , Aravindan Raghuveer

Log-linear models are a well-established method for describing statistical dependencies among a set of n random variables. The observed frequencies of the n-tuples are explained by a joint probability such that its logarithm is a sum of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Daniel Herrmann , Dominik Janzing

Deep learning has seen substantial achievements, with numerical and theoretical evidence suggesting that singularities of statistical models are considered a contributing factor to its performance. From this remarkable success of classical…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-11-26 Hiroshi Yano , Yota Maeda , Naoki Yamamoto

The learning coefficient plays a crucial role in analyzing the performance of information criteria, such as the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) and the Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion (WBIC), which Sumio…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-17 Tatsuyoshi Takio , Joe Suzuki

The marginal likelihood or evidence in Bayesian statistics contains an intrinsic penalty for larger model sizes and is a fundamental quantity in Bayesian model comparison. Over the past two decades, there has been steadily increasing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-12 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati , Sean Plummer

In statistical classification and machine learning, classification error is an important performance measure, which is minimized by the Bayes decision rule. In practice, the unknown true distribution is usually replaced with a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Zijian Yang , Vahe Eminyan , Ralf Schlüter , Hermann Ney

Many learning machines such as normal mixtures and layered neural networks are not regular but singular statistical models, because the map from a parameter to a probability distribution is not one-to-one. The conventional statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-03 Koshi Yamada , Sumio Watanabe

This article studies the achievable guarantees on the error rates of certain learning algorithms, with particular focus on refining logarithmic factors. Many of the results are based on a general technique for obtaining bounds on the error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-13 Steve Hanneke

Typical learning curves for Soft Margin Classifiers (SMCs) learning both realizable and unrealizable tasks are determined using the tools of Statistical Mechanics. We derive the analytical behaviour of the learning curves in the regimes of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 Sebastian Risau-Gusman , Mirta B. Gordon

We present a general approach, based on exponential inequalities, to derive bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. Using this approach, we provide bounds on the average generalization error as well as bounds…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-10 Fredrik Hellström , Giuseppe Durisi

It is known that the learning rate is the most important hyper-parameter to tune for training deep neural networks. This paper describes a new method for setting the learning rate, named cyclical learning rates, which practically eliminates…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-04-05 Leslie N. Smith

Likelihood based-learning of graphical models faces challenges of computational-complexity and robustness to model mis-specification. This paper studies methods that fit parameters directly to maximize a measure of the accuracy of predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-07-04 Justin Domke
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