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Probability theory has become the predominant framework for quantifying uncertainty across scientific and engineering disciplines, with a particular focus on measurement and control systems. However, the widespread reliance on simple…

We discuss a Bayesian methodology for the solution of the inverse problem underlying the determination of parton distribution functions (PDFs). In our approach, Gaussian Processes (GPs) are used to model the PDF prior, while Bayes theorem…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-07-03 Alessandro Candido , Luigi Del Debbio , Tommaso Giani , Giacomo Petrillo

We discuss the statistical properties of parton distributions within the framework of the NNPDF methodology. We present various tests of statistical consistency, in particular that the distribution of results does not depend on the…

The recently developed "Data Set Diagonalization" method (DSD) is applied to measure compatibility of the data sets that are used to determine parton distribution functions (PDFs). Discrepancies among the experiments are found to be…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2010-04-22 Jon Pumplin

We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2010-06-02 The NNPDF Collaboration , Richard D. Ball , Luigi Del Debbio , Stefano Forte , Alberto Guffanti , Jose I. Latorre , Juan Rojo , Maria Ubiali

We review various methods used to estimate uncertainties in quantum correlation functions, such as parton distribution functions (PDFs). Using a toy model of a PDF, we compare the uncertainty estimates yielded by the traditional Hessian and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2022-08-17 N. T. Hunt-Smith , A. Accardi , W. Melnitchouk , N. Sato , A. W. Thomas , M. J. White

The Hessian method is widely applied in the global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs), which uses a set of orthogonal eigenvectors to give predictions of a physical observable. Its uncertainty is estimated based on the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-09-12 Wenxiao Zhan , Siqi Yang , Minghui Liu , Liang Han , Daniel Stump , C. -P. Yuan

The choice of data that enters a global QCD analysis can have a substantial impact on the resulting parton distributions and their predictions for collider observables. One of the main reasons for this has to do with the possible presence…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2014-09-11 Juan Rojo

An important limitation in current fits of parton distribution functions (PDFs) is that PDF uncertainties do not include any source of theoretical uncertainty. Here we present a general method for incorporating theoretical uncertainties…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2018-10-05 R. L. Pearson , C. Voisey

In this work, we study non-parametric estimation of joint probabilities of a given set of discrete and continuous random variables from their (empirically estimated) 2D marginals, under the assumption that the joint probability could be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-04 Shaan ul Haque , Ajit Rajwade , Karthik S. Gurumoorthy

In global QCD fits of parton distribution functions (PDFs), a large part of the estimated uncertainty on the PDFs originates from the choices of parametric functional forms and fitting methodology. We argue that these types of uncertainties…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-02-21 Aurore Courtoy , Joey Huston , Pavel Nadolsky , Keping Xie , Mengshi Yan , C. -P. Yuan

A robust uncertainty estimate in global analyses of Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) is essential at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), especially in view of the high-precision data anticipated by experimentalists in the High-Luminosity…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-04-14 Mark N. Costantini , Luca Mantani , James M. Moore , Maria Ubiali

We introduce the Hessian reweighting of parton distribution functions (PDFs). Similarly to the better-known Bayesian methods, its purpose is to address the compatibility of new data and the quantitative modifications they induce within an…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2015-06-18 Hannu Paukkunen , Pia Zurita

We apply the Lagrange Multiplier method to study the uncertainties of physical predictions due to the uncertainties of parton distribution functions (PDFs), using the cross section for W production at a hadron collider as an archetypal…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-09-25 D. Stump , J. Pumplin , R. Brock , D. Casey , J. Huston , J. Kalk , H. L. Lai , W. K. Tung

Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) commonly arise in communication systems, particularly in bilinear joint estimation and detection problems. Although the product of GMMs is still a GMM, as the number of factors increases, the number of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-04 Zilu Zhao , Dirk Slock

Modern analysis on parton distribution functions (PDFs) requires calculations of the log-likelihood functions from thousands of experimental data points, and scans of multi-dimensional parameter space with tens of degrees of freedom. In…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2022-08-24 DianYu Liu , ChuanLe Sun , Jun Gao

The extraction of parton distribution functions (PDFs) from experimental or lattice QCD data is an ill-posed inverse problem, where regularization strongly impacts both systematic uncertainties and the reliability of the results. We study a…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2026-02-11 Yamil Cahuana Medrano , Hervé Dutrieux , Joseph Karpie , Kostas Orginos , Savvas Zafeiropoulos

In this paper, we study the problem of learning one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) with a specific focus on estimating both the model order and the mixing distribution from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Xinyu Liu , Hai Zhang

Parton distributions functions (PDFs), which are essential to the interpretation of data from high energy colliders, are measured by representing them as functional forms containing many parameters. Those parameters are determined by…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2015-03-13 Jon Pumplin

We describe and analyze a broad class of mixture models for real-valued multivariate data in which the probability density of observations within each component of the model is represented as an arbitrary combination of basis functions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-28 M. E. J. Newman
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