Related papers: Bridging Multicalibration and Out-of-distribution …
In this paper, we present results on improving out-of-domain weather prediction and uncertainty estimation as part of the \texttt{Shifts Challenge on Robustness and Uncertainty under Real-World Distributional Shift} challenge. We find that…
Multicalibration gradient boosting has recently emerged as a scalable method that empirically produces approximately multicalibrated predictors and has been deployed at web scale. Despite this empirical success, its convergence properties…
A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…
The ability of an agent to do well in new environments is a critical aspect of intelligence. In machine learning, this ability is known as $\textit{strong}$ or $\textit{out-of-distribution}$ generalization. However, merely considering…
The application of machine learning in safety-critical systems requires a reliable assessment of uncertainty. However, deep neural networks are known to produce highly overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Even if…
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and invariant risk minimization (IRM) are two popular methods proposed to improve out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization performance of machine learning models. While effective for small models,…
Multicalibration is a notion of fairness for predictors that requires them to provide calibrated predictions across a large set of protected groups. Multicalibration is known to be a distinct goal than loss minimization, even for simple…
In the field of computer vision, fine-tuning pre-trained models has become a prevalent strategy for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization tasks. Different from most prior work that has focused on advancing learning algorithms, we…
This paper introduces a framework for post-processing machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy multi-group fairness guarantees. Based on the celebrated notion of multicalibration, we introduce $(\mathbf{s},\mathcal{G},…
Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…
We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this…
The integrity of training data, even when annotated by experts, is far from guaranteed, especially for non-IID datasets comprising both in- and out-of-distribution samples. In an ideal scenario, the majority of samples would be…
Calibration and uncertainty estimation are crucial topics in high-risk environments. We introduce a new diversity regularizer for classification tasks that uses out-of-distribution samples and increases the overall accuracy, calibration and…
Machine learning models often have uneven performance among subpopulations (a.k.a., groups) in the data distributions. This poses a significant challenge for the models to generalize when the proportions of the groups shift during…
Multi-calibration is a powerful and evolving concept originating in the field of algorithmic fairness. For a predictor $f$ that estimates the outcome $y$ given covariates $x$, and for a function class $\mathcal{C}$, multi-calibration…
When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive…
Multicalibration [HJKRR18] is an algorithmic fairness perspective that demands that the predictions of a predictor are correct conditional on themselves and membership in a collection of potentially overlapping subgroups of a population.…
The problem of detecting whether a test sample is from in-distribution (i.e., training distribution by a classifier) or out-of-distribution sufficiently different from it arises in many real-world machine learning applications. However, the…
Distribution shifts are ubiquitous in real-world machine learning applications, posing a challenge to the generalization of models trained on one data distribution to another. We focus on scenarios where data distributions vary across…
For machine learning systems to be reliable, we must understand their performance in unseen, out-of-distribution environments. In this paper, we empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with…