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Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Counterfactual estimation over time is important in various applications, such as personalized medicine. However, time-dependent confounding bias in observational data still poses a significant challenge in achieving accurate and efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Nghia D. Nguyen , Pablo Robles-Granda , Lav R. Varshney

Identifying when to give treatments to patients and how to select among multiple treatments over time are important medical problems with a few existing solutions. In this paper, we introduce the Counterfactual Recurrent Network (CRN), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , James Jordon , Mihaela van der Schaar

Medical professionals evaluating alternative treatment plans for a patient often encounter time varying confounders, or covariates that affect both the future treatment assignment and the patient outcome. The recently proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Garima Gupta , Lovekesh Vig , Gautam Shroff

Causal inference, or counterfactual prediction, is central to decision making in healthcare, policy and social sciences. To de-bias causal estimators with high-dimensional data in observational studies, recent advances suggest the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Shuxi Zeng , Serge Assaad , Chenyang Tao , Shounak Datta , Lawrence Carin , Fan Li

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-15 Farbod Alinezhad , Jianfei Cao , Gary J. Young , Brady Post

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Chongyi Zheng , Ruslan Salakhutdinov , Benjamin Eysenbach

With the widespread accumulation of observational data, researchers obtain a new direction to learn counterfactual effects in many domains (e.g., health care and computational advertising) without Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

A key to causal inference with observational data is achieving balance in predictive features associated with each treatment type. Recent literature has explored representation learning to achieve this goal. In this work, we discuss the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Chenyang Tao , Shounak Datta , Nikhil Mehta , Ricardo Henao , Fan Li , Lawrence Carin

The foremost challenge to causal inference with real-world data is to handle the imbalance in the covariates with respect to different treatment options, caused by treatment selection bias. To address this issue, recent literature has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-23 Zhixuan Chu , Stephen Rathbun , Sheng Li

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-05 Mouad EL Bouchattaoui

Counterfactual explanations are a prominent example of post-hoc interpretability methods in the explainable Artificial Intelligence research domain. They provide individuals with alternative scenarios and a set of recommendations to achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Andrea Ferrario , Michele Loi

Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting whether an offender will succeed on parole if placed under minimal supervision. Generally, to learn such counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Amanda Coston , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova
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