Related papers: Machine Learning Methods for Pricing Financial Der…
Mathematical modelling is ubiquitous in the financial industry and drives key decision processes. Any given model provides only a crude approximation to reality and the risk of using an inadequate model is hard to detect and quantify. By…
We propose a new financial model, the stochastic volatility model with sticky drawdown and drawup processes (SVSDU model), which enables us to capture the features of winning and losing streaks that are common across financial markets but…
Neural networks with sufficiently smooth activation functions can approximate values and derivatives of any smooth function, and they are differentiable themselves. We improve the approximation capability of neural networks by utilizing the…
Variance reduction techniques are of crucial importance for the efficiency of Monte Carlo simulations in finance applications. We propose the use of neural SDEs, with control variates parameterized by neural networks, in order to learn…
Modelling joint dynamics of liquid vanilla options is crucial for arbitrage-free pricing of illiquid derivatives and managing risks of option trade books. This paper develops a nonparametric model for the European options book respecting…
Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDEs) model the drift and diffusion functions of a stochastic process as neural networks. While NSDEs are known to make accurate predictions, their uncertainty quantification properties have been…
We study the capability of arbitrage-free neural-SDE market models to yield effective strategies for hedging options. In particular, we derive sensitivity-based and minimum-variance-based hedging strategies using these models and examine…
Understanding the behavior of stochastic gradient methods is a central problem in modern machine learning. Recent work has highlighted diagonal linear networks as a simplified yet expressive setting for analyzing the optimization and…
Stochastic volatility models, where the volatility is a stochastic process, can capture most of the essential stylized facts of implied volatility surfaces and give more realistic dynamics of the volatility smile/skew. However, they come…
Differential equations can be used to construct predictive models of a diverse set of real-world phenomena like heat transfer, predator-prey interactions, and missile tracking. In our work, we explore one particular application of…
We consider assets for which price $X_t$ and squared volatility $Y_t$ are jointly driven by Heston joint stochastic differential equations (SDEs). When the parameters of these SDEs are estimated from $N$ sub-sampled data $(X_{nT}, Y_{nT})$,…
We identify effective stochastic differential equations (SDE) for coarse observables of fine-grained particle- or agent-based simulations; these SDE then provide useful coarse surrogate models of the fine scale dynamics. We approximate the…
We develop a new continuous-time stochastic gradient descent method for optimizing over the stationary distribution of stochastic differential equation (SDE) models. The algorithm continuously updates the SDE model's parameters using an…
We develop a probabilistic machine learning method, which formulates a class of stochastic neural networks by a stochastic optimal control problem. An efficient stochastic gradient descent algorithm is introduced under the stochastic…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are one of the most important representations of dynamical systems. They are notable for the ability to include a deterministic component of the system and a stochastic one to represent random…
We introduce a novel and highly tractable supervised learning approach based on neural networks that can be applied for the computation of model-free price bounds of, potentially high-dimensional, financial derivatives and for the…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) describe dynamical systems where deterministic flows, governed by a drift function, are superimposed with random fluctuations, dictated by a diffusion function. The accurate estimation (or discovery)…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are established tools to model physical phenomena whose dynamics are affected by random noise. By estimating parameters of an SDE intrinsic randomness of a system around its drift can be identified…
Neural Laplace is a unified framework for learning diverse classes of differential equations (DE). For different classes of DE, this framework outperforms other approaches relying on neural networks that aim to learn classes of ordinary…
Stochastic differential equations provide a rich class of flexible generative models, capable of describing a wide range of spatio-temporal processes. A host of recent work looks to learn data-representing SDEs, using neural networks and…