Related papers: AI-based data assimilation: Learning the functiona…
A method of data assimilation (DA) is employed to estimate electrophysiological parameters of neurons simultaneously with their synaptic connectivity in a small model biological network. The DA procedure is cast as an optimization, with a…
In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense,…
Methods to deal with systematic model errors are an increasingly important component of modern data assimilation systems and their effectiveness has increased in recent years thanks to advances in methodology and the quality and density of…
Errors in the representation of clouds in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models can be introduced by different sources. These can be the forcing and boundary conditions, the representation of orography, the accuracy of…
Data assimilation combines forecasts from a numerical model with observations. Most of the current data assimilation algorithms consider the model and observation error terms as additive Gaussian noise, specified by their covariance…
Explainable AI (XAI) is an active research area to interpret a neural network's decision by ensuring transparency and trust in the task-specified learned models. Recently, perturbation-based model analysis has shown better interpretation,…
Data Assimilation is the process in which we improve the representation of the state of a physical system by combining information coming from a numerical model, real-world observations, and some prior modelling. It is widely used to model…
Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional…
Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state…
In recent years, the convergence of data-driven machine learning models with Data Assimilation (DA) offers a promising avenue for enhancing weather forecasting. This study delves into this emerging trend, presenting our methodologies and…
This paper addresses the impact of assimilating data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) during two cases of severe weather. Data from the ENTLN serve as a substitute for those from the upcoming launch of the GOES…
Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable. We reformulate wind…
Data assimilation (DA) aims to optimally combine model forecasts and observations that are both partial and noisy. Multi-model DA generalizes the variational or Bayesian formulation of the Kalman filter, and we prove that it is also the…
The 4D-Var method for filtering partially observed nonlinear chaotic dynamical systems consists of finding the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator of the initial condition of the system given observations over a time window, and…
Machine Learning (ML) has shown great promise in revolutionizing weather forecasting, yet most ML systems still rely on initial conditions generated by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. End-to-end ML models aim to eliminate this…
Data-driven methods have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities in fluid mechanics, yet most current applications still focus on simplified configurations, often characterised by statistical stationarity or limited temporal…
We consider the problem of data-assisted forecasting of chaotic dynamical systems when the available data is in the form of noisy partial measurements of the past and present state of the dynamical system. Recently there have been several…
Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts and observations to estimate the optimal state of the atmosphere with its uncertainty, providing initial conditions for weather prediction and reanalyses for climate research. Yet, existing…
Accurate weather and climate prediction relies on data assimilation (DA), which estimates the Earth system state by integrating observations with models. While exascale computing has significantly advanced earth simulation, scalable and…
Data assimilation leads naturally to a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior probability distribution of the system state, given the observations, plays a central conceptual role. The aim of this paper is to use this Bayesian…