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Weather prediction is a critical task for human society, where impressive progress has been made by training artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) methods with reanalysis data. However, reliance on reanalysis data limits the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Junchao Gong , Jingyi Xu , Ben Fei , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Kun Chen , Wanghan Xu , Weidong Yang , Xiaokang Yang , Lei Bai

The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-28 Yanfei Xiang , Weixin Jin , Haiyu Dong , Mingliang Bai , Zuliang Fang , Pengcheng Zhao , Hongyu Sun , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang , Xiaomeng Huang

Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…

Data assimilation (DA) is integrated with machine learning in order to perform entirely data-driven online state estimation. To achieve this, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented as surrogate models to replace key components of…

Data assimilation of atmospheric observations traditionally relies on variational and Kalman filter methods. Here, an alternative neural-network data assimilation (NNDA) with variational autoencoder (VAE) is proposed. The three-dimensional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-29 Boštjan Melinc , Žiga Zaplotnik

Data assimilation refers to a set of algorithms designed to compute the optimal estimate of a system's state by refining the prior prediction (known as background states) using observed data. Variational assimilation methods rely on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Yi Xiao , Qilong Jia , Wei Xue , Lei Bai

Earth system modeling presents a fundamental challenge in scientific computing: capturing complex, multiscale nonlinear dynamics in computationally efficient models while minimizing forecast errors caused by necessary simplifications. Even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Yongquan Qu , Matthieu Blanke , Sara Shamekh , Pierre Gentine

Variational Data Assimilation (DA) has enabled huge improvements in the skill of operational weather forecasting. In this study, we use a simple solar-wind propagation model to develop the first solar-wind variational DA scheme. This scheme…

Space Physics · Physics 2018-10-19 Matthew Lang , Mathew Owens

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-05 Kun Chen , Lei Bai , Fenghua Ling , Peng Ye , Tao Chen , Hang Fan , Hao Chen , Yi Xiao , Kang Chen , Tao Han , Jing-Jia Luo , Wanli Ouyang

There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), for example using convolutional neural networks such as U-NETs that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose 3 components to integrate with commonly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-04 Ashesh Chattopadhyay , Mustafa Mustafa , Pedram Hassanzadeh , Eviatar Bach , Karthik Kashinath

Weather forecasting is a crucial yet highly challenging task. With the maturity of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the emergence of data-driven weather forecasting models has opened up a new paradigm for the development of weather forecasting…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-05-21 Yi Xiao , Lei Bai , Wei Xue , Kang Chen , Tao Han , Wanli Ouyang

Research on Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Data Assimilation (DA) is expanding rapidly. However, the absence of an objective, comprehensive, and real-world benchmark hinders the fair comparison of diverse methods. Here, we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Wuxin Wang , Weicheng Ni , Ben Fei , Tao Han , Lilan Huang , Taikang Yuan , Xiaoyong Li , Lei Bai , Boheng Duan , Kaijun Ren

Variational data assimilation estimates the dynamical system states by minimizing a cost function that fits the numerical models with the observational data. Although four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) is widely used, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yiming Yang , Xiaoyuan Cheng , Daniel Giles , Sibo Cheng , Yi He , Xiao Xue , Boli Chen , Yukun Hu

Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-02-25 Amirmoez Jamaat , Yalan Song , Farshid Rahmani , Jiangtao Liu , Kathryn Lawson , Chaopeng Shen

Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. Classical high-dimensional DA methods, such as the ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Martin Andrae , Erik Wikingsson , So Takao , Tomas Landelius , Fredrik Lindsten

Data assimilation is a method that combines observations (that is, real world data) of a state of a system with model output for that system in order to improve the estimate of the state of the system and thereby the model output. The model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-05-18 Melina A. Freitag

Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Xiaoze Xu , Xiuyu Sun , Wei Han , Xiaohui Zhong , Lei Chen , Hao Li

Data assimilation is a central problem in many geophysical applications, such as weather forecasting. It aims to estimate the state of a potentially large system, such as the atmosphere, from sparse observations, supplemented by prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Matthieu Blanke , Ronan Fablet , Marc Lelarge

Data assimilation (DA) aims to estimate the full state of a dynamical system by combining partial and noisy observations with a prior model forecast, commonly referred to as the background. In atmospheric applications, this problem is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-29 Jing-An Sun , Hang Fan , Junchao Gong , Ben Fei , Kun Chen , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Wanghan Xu , Li Yan , Pierre Gentine , Lei Bai

Variational Data Assimilation (DA) has been broadly used in engineering problems for field reconstruction and prediction by performing a weighted combination of multiple sources of noisy data. In recent years, the integration of deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Sibo Cheng , Che Liu , Yike Guo , Rossella Arcucci
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