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We discuss the problem of risk estimation in the classification problem, with specific focus on finding distributions that maximize the confidence intervals of risk estimation. We derived simple analytic approximations for the maximum bias…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-08-15 Victor Nedelko

Optimal values and solutions of empirical approximations of stochastic optimization problems can be viewed as statistical estimators of their true values. From this perspective, it is important to understand the asymptotic behavior of these…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Johannes Milz , Thomas M. Surowiec

In the machine learning and optimization community, there are two main approaches for the convex risk minimization problem, namely, the Stochastic Approximation (SA) and the Sample Average Approximation (SAA). In terms of oracle complexity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-26 Darina Dvinskikh

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a powerful method for carrying out Bayesian inference when the likelihood is computationally intractable. However, a drawback of ABC is that it is an approximate method that induces a systematic…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-29 Minh Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn

This paper studies a sequential decision problem where payoff distributions are known and where the riskiness of payoffs matters. Equivalently, it studies sequential choice from a repeated set of independent lotteries. The decision-maker is…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-02 Zengjing Chen , Larry G. Epstein , Guodong Zhang

In this paper, we explore bounds on the expected risk when using deep neural networks for supervised classification from an information theoretic perspective. Firstly, we introduce model risk and fitting error, which are derived from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Binchuan Qi

In multi-task learning (MTL) with each task involving graph-dependent data, existing generalization analyses yield a \emph{sub-optimal} risk bound of $O(\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}})$, where $n$ is the number of training samples of each task.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Xiao Shao , Guoqiang Wu

Stochastic convex optimization is one of the most well-studied models for learning in modern machine learning. Nevertheless, a central fundamental question in this setup remained unresolved: "How many data points must be observed so that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Daniel Carmon , Roi Livni , Amir Yehudayoff

This paper establishes sharp dimension-free concentration and expectation bounds for the deviation of a sample cross-covariance matrix from its mean. For sub-Gaussian random vectors, we prove a high-probability operator-norm bound governed…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Jiaheng Chen , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

We establish central limit theorems for the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) method in discrete-time, finite-horizon stochastic optimal control. Our analysis is based on an abstract limit theorem for stochastic backward recursions, which…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Johannes Milz , Alexander Shapiro

In this paper, we consider a best action identification problem in the stochastic linear bandit setup with a fixed confident constraint. In the considered best action identification problem, instead of minimizing the accumulative regret as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Jun Geng , Lifeng Lai

Let $X,X_1,\dots, X_n,\dots$ be i.i.d. centered Gaussian random variables in a separable Banach space $E$ with covariance operator $\Sigma:$ $$ \Sigma:E^{\ast}\mapsto E,\ \ \Sigma u = {\mathbb E}\langle X,u\rangle, u\in E^{\ast}. $$ The…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-02 Vladimir Koltchinskii , Karim Lounici

It remains a challenge to provide safety guarantees for autonomous systems with neural perception and control. A typical approach obtains symbolic bounds on perception error (e.g., using conformal prediction) and performs verification under…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-20 Thomas Waite , Yuang Geng , Trevor Turnquist , Ivan Ruchkin , Radoslav Ivanov

Importance sampling has become an indispensable strategy to speed up optimization algorithms for large-scale applications. Improved adaptive variants - using importance values defined by the complete gradient information which changes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Sebastian U. Stich , Anant Raj , Martin Jaggi

We introduce the concept of coverage risk as an error measure for density ridge estimation. The coverage risk generalizes the mean integrated square error to set estimation. We propose two risk estimators for the coverage risk and we show…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-09 Yen-Chi Chen , Christopher R. Genovese , Shirley Ho , Larry Wasserman

Stochastic optimization is a widely used approach for optimization under uncertainty, where uncertain input parameters are modeled by random variables. Exact or approximation algorithms have been obtained for several fundamental problems in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Arpit Agarwal , Rohan Ghuge , Viswanath Nagarajan , Zhengjia Zhuo

The problem of finding an optimum using noisy evaluations of a smooth cost function arises in many contexts, including economics, business, medicine, experiment design, and foraging theory. We derive an asymptotic bound E[ (x_t - x*)^2 ] >=…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Barak A. Pearlmutter

We present a general approach, based on exponential inequalities, to derive bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. Using this approach, we provide bounds on the average generalization error as well as bounds…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-10 Fredrik Hellström , Giuseppe Durisi

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is the workhorse of machine learning, whether for classification and regression or for off-policy policy learning, but its model-agnostic guarantees can fail when we use adaptively collected data, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-04 Aurélien Bibaut , Antoine Chambaz , Maria Dimakopoulou , Nathan Kallus , Mark van der Laan

We consider a broad class of permutation invariant statistical problems by extending the standard decision theoretic definition to allow also selective inference tasks, where the target is specified only after seeing the data. For any such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Asaf Weinstein