Related papers: Inflation Determinants in Argentina (2004-2022)
The aim of this paper is to investigate the use of the Factor Analysis in order to identify the role of the relevant macroeconomic variables in driving the inflation. The Macroeconomic predictors that usually affect the inflation are…
The classifications of inflationary regimes proposed in the literature have mostly been based on arbitrary characterizations, subject to value judgments by researchers. The objective of this study is to propose a new methodological approach…
Traditional macroeconomic models, based on static algebraic systems, fail to capture the dynamics of a bimonetary economy like Argentina's. This paper proposes a framework based on category theory to develop a more flexible and structured…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
The `paradox of progress' is an empirical regularity that associates more education with larger income inequality. Two driving and competing factors behind this phenomenon are the convexity of the `Mincer equation' (that links wages and…
We propose a new model for the joint evolution of the European inflation rate, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for…
This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…
This paper uses predictive densities obtained via mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models to evaluate the statistical sustainability of Brazilian inflation targeting system with the tolerance bounds. The probabilities give an…
An empirical model is presented linking inflation and unemployment rate to the change in the level of labour force in Switzerland. The involved variables are found to be cointegrated and we estimate lagged linear deterministic relationships…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE)…
The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…
Since the beginning of this century the Colombian monetary authority has conducted monetary policy under a strategy based on setting targets for interest rate and inflation, while allowing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in domestic…
The economic crisis in Argentina around year 2002 provides a unique opportunity for Econophysics studies. The available data on individual income are analyzed to show that they correspond to non stationary states. However, the rather…
Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…
The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce…
We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks…
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this…
This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between…
This study examines the factors influencing the short-term real effective exchange rate (REER) in Uruguay by applying an extended Mundell-Fleming model. Analyzing the impact of the US lending rate (USLR), money supply (M2), inflation (CPI),…
We develop a model to price inflation and interest rates derivatives using continuous-time dynamics that have some links with macroeconomic monetary DSGE models equipped with a Taylor rule: in particular, the reaction function of the…