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Water quantity and quality are vital indices for assessing fluvial environments. These indices are highly variable over time and include sub-exponential memory, where the influences of past events persist over long durations. Moreover,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Hidekazu Yoshioka , Yumi Yoshioka

Urban scaling laws summarize how urban attributes evolve with city size. Recent criticism questions notably the aggregate view of this approach, which leads to neglecting the internal structure of cities. This is all the more relevant for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-05-24 Gaëtan Laziou , Rémi Lemoy , Marion Le Texier

Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-24 Gergo Barta , Gyula Borbely , Gabor Nagy , Sandor Kazi , Tamas Henk

The tick value is a crucial component of market design and is often considered the most suitable tool to mitigate the effects of high frequency trading. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate that the approach introduced in Dayri and…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-28 Weibing Huang , Charles-Albert Lehalle , Mathieu Rosenbaum

In today's increasingly international economy, return and volatility spillover effects across international equity markets are major macroeconomic drivers of stock dynamics. Thus, information regarding foreign markets is one of the most…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-20 Sang Il Lee , Seong Joon Yoo

The expansion of short-term rental platforms, such as Airbnb, has significantly disrupted local housing markets, often leading to increased rental prices and housing affordability issues. Accurately forecasting regional Airbnb market trends…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Hongju Lee , Youngjun Park , Jisun An , Dongman Lee

Much of the trading activity in Equity markets is directed to brokerage houses. In exchange they provide so-called "soft dollars," which basically are amounts spent in "research" for identifying profitable trading opportunities. Soft…

Applications · Statistics 2009-06-08 Philippe Huber , Olivier Scaillet , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser

Volatility means the degree of variation of a stock price which is important in finance. Realized Volatility (RV) is an estimator of the volatility calculated using high-frequency observed prices. RV has lately attracted considerable…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-02 Toru Yano

We develop a deep learning model of multi-period mortgage risk and use it to analyze an unprecedented dataset of origination and monthly performance records for over 120 million mortgages originated across the US between 1995 and 2014. Our…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-13 Justin Sirignano , Apaar Sadhwani , Kay Giesecke

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold $q$ for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 Woo-Sung Jung , Fengzhong Wang , Shlomo Havlin , Taisei Kaizoji , Hie-Tae Moon , H. Eugene Stanley

This study introduces a dynamic investment framework to enhance portfolio management in volatile markets, offering clear advantages over traditional static strategies. Evaluates four conventional approaches : equal weighted, minimum…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-07 Jinhui Li , Wenjia Xie , Luis Seco

In this paper, we use the house price data ranging from January 2004 to October 2016 to predict the average house price of November and December in 2016 for each district in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. We apply Autoregressive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-26 Xiaochen Chen , Lai Wei , Jiaxin Xu

We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Takayuki Mizuno , Misako Takayasu , Hideki Takayasu

Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established modelling and forecasting methods without obeying these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-02 Han Lin Shang , Steven Haberman

The paper develops a Transformer architecture for estimating dynamic factors from multivariate time series data under flexible identification assumptions. Performance on small datasets is improved substantially by using a conventional…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Oliver Snellman

Valuing residential property is inherently complex, requiring consideration of numerous environmental, economic, and property-specific factors. These complexities present significant challenges for automated valuation models (AVMs), which…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-18 Brian O'Donovan , Andrew Finley , James Sweeney

The goal of regression analysis is to predict the value of a numeric outcome variable y given a vector of joint values of other (predictor) variables x. Usually a particular x-vector does not specify a repeatable value for y, but rather a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-29 Jerome H. Friedman

When trading American and Asian options in the FX derivatives market, banks must calculate prices using a complex mathematical model. It is often observed that different models produce varying prices for the same exotic option, which…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-24 Dongli Wu , Bufan Zhang , Xiao Lin

As a basic human need, housing plays a key role in enhancing health, well-being, and educational outcome in society, and the housing market is a major factor for promoting quality of life and ensuring social equity. To improve the housing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Abdalwahab Almajed , Maryam Tabar , Peyman Najafirad

Although spatial prediction is widely used for urban and environmental monitoring, its accuracy is often unsatisfactory if only a small number of samples are available in the study area. The objective of this study was to improve the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-22 Daisuke Murakami , Mami Kajita , Seiji Kajita