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Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-10 Tuo Wang , Adithya Kulkarni , Tyler Cody , Peter A. Beling , Yujun Yan , Dawei Zhou

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly being integrated into computational social science research, yet their blackboxed training and designed stochastic elements in inference pose unique challenges for scientific inquiry. This article…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Bolun Zhang , Linzhuo Li , Yunqi Chen , Qinlin Zhao , Zihan Zhu , Xiaoyuan Yi , Xing Xie

To facilitate healthcare delivery, language models (LMs) have significant potential for clinical prediction tasks using electronic health records (EHRs). However, in these high-stakes applications, unreliable decisions can result in high…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Zizhang Chen , Peizhao Li , Xiaomeng Dong , Pengyu Hong

Text classifiers built on Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in various tasks including sentiment analysis, natural language inference, and question-answering. However, the occurrence of uncertain…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Jiazheng Li , Zhaoyue Sun , Bin Liang , Lin Gui , Yulan He

Prompt optimization algorithms for Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in multi-step reasoning but still lack effective uncertainty estimation. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset to evaluate uncertainty metrics, focusing on Answer,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Sebastian G. Gruber

The popular success of text-based large language models (LLM) has streamlined the attention of the multimodal community to combine other modalities like vision and audio along with text to achieve similar multimodal capabilities. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Debarpan Bhattacharya , Apoorva Kulkarni , Sriram Ganapathy

Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer from hallucination problems, which hinder their reliability in sensitive applications. In the black-box setting, several self-consistency-based techniques have been proposed for hallucination detection.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Yihao Xue , Kristjan Greenewald , Youssef Mroueh , Baharan Mirzasoleiman

Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-19 Javier Antorán , Umang Bhatt , Tameem Adel , Adrian Weller , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Methods for interpreting machine learning black-box models increase the outcomes' transparency and in turn generates insight into the reliability and fairness of the algorithms. However, the interpretations themselves could contain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-05 Yujia Zhang , Kuangyan Song , Yiming Sun , Sarah Tan , Madeleine Udell

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable achievements in natural language processing tasks, producing high-quality outputs. However, LLMs still exhibit limitations, including the generation of factually incorrect information. In…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-17 Sridevi Wagle , Sai Munikoti , Anurag Acharya , Sara Smith , Sameera Horawalavithana

In signal analysis and synthesis, linear approximation theory considers a linear decomposition of any given signal in a set of atoms, collected into a so-called dictionary. Relevant sparse representations are obtained by relaxing the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-11-04 Paul Honeine

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Large language models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate and produce factual errors, yet our understanding of why they make these errors remains limited. In this study, we delve into the underlying mechanisms of LLM hallucinations from the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Shiqi Chen , Miao Xiong , Junteng Liu , Zhengxuan Wu , Teng Xiao , Siyang Gao , Junxian He

Large-language models (LLMs) and chatbot agents are known to provide wrong outputs at times, and it was recently found that this can never be fully prevented. Hence, uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role, aiming to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Michael Kirchhof , Gjergji Kasneci , Enkelejda Kasneci

The Large language models (LLMs) have showcased superior capabilities in sophisticated tasks across various domains, stemming from basic question-answer (QA), they are nowadays used as decision assistants or explainers for unfamiliar…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Longchao Da , Tiejin Chen , Lu Cheng , Hua Wei

Recent advancements in language models (LMs) have gained substantial attentions on their capability to generate human-like responses. Though exhibiting a promising future for various applications such as conversation AI, these LMs face…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-14 Yufei Li , Zexin Li , Wei Yang , Cong Liu

Large language models (LLMs) can suffer from hallucinations when generating text. These hallucinations impede various applications in society and industry by making LLMs untrustworthy. Current LLMs generate text in an autoregressive fashion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Lukas Aichberger , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Tiejin Chen , Longchao Da , Xiaoou Liu , Hua Wei

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Gal Yona , Roee Aharoni , Mor Geva