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Related papers: Verifiably Robust Conformal Prediction

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Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-17 Jiarong Fan , Juhyun Park. Thi Phuong Thuy Vo , Nicolas Brunel

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification with finite-sample guarantees. However, applying CP to graph neural networks (GNNs) remains challenging as the combinatorial nature of graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Peyman Baghershahi , Fangxin Wang , Debmalya Mandal , Sourav Medya

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Charles Lu , Yaodong Yu , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan , Ramesh Raskar

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Zheng Zhou , Xiangfei Zhang , Chongguang Tao , Yuhong Yang

This paper presents a unified framework for understanding the methodology and theory behind several different methods in the conformal prediction literature, which includes standard conformal prediction (CP), weighted conformal prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Rina Foygel Barber , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Estimating the reliability of individual predictions is key to increase the adoption of computational models and artificial intelligence in preclinical drug discovery, as well as to foster its application to guide decision making in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-08-13 Isidro Cortés-Ciriano , Andreas Bender

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Yizhou Min , Yizhou Lu , Lanqi Li , Zhen Zhang , Jiaye Teng

We present recent advances in formal verification and control for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees enabled by conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. This survey is particularly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-19 Lars Lindemann , Yiqi Zhao , Xinyi Yu , George J. Pappas , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

We introduce a method based on Conformal Prediction (CP) to quantify the uncertainty of full ranking algorithms. We focus on a specific scenario where $n+m$ items are to be ranked by some ``black box'' algorithm. It is assumed that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Pierre Humbert , Gilles Blanchard

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Roberto Neglia , Andrea Cini , Michael M. Bronstein , Filippo Maria Bianchi

Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan