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We introduce Deep Variational Bayes Filters (DVBF), a new method for unsupervised learning and identification of latent Markovian state space models. Leveraging recent advances in Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes, DVBF can overcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-06 Maximilian Karl , Maximilian Soelch , Justin Bayer , Patrick van der Smagt

Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) provides a powerful and flexible framework for performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach extends Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-07 Edoardo Marcelli , Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Rockova

Bayesian filtering for high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems is a fundamental yet challenging problem in many fields of science and engineering. Existing methods face significant obstacles: Gaussian-based filters struggle…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-06 Xintong Wang , Xiaofei Guan , Ling Guo , Hao Wu

In Data Assimilation, observations are fused with simulations to obtain an accurate estimate of the state and parameters for a given physical system. Combining data with a model, however, while accurately estimating uncertainty, is…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Nikolaj T. Mücke , Sander M. Bohté , Cornelis W. Oosterlee

Nonlinear/non-Gaussian filtering has broad applications in many areas of life sciences where either the dynamic is nonlinear and/or the probability density function of uncertain state is non-Gaussian. In such problems, the accuracy of the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-08-02 Hatef Monajemi , Peter K. Kitanidis

Data assimilation is a fundamental task in updating forecasting models upon observing new data, with applications ranging from weather prediction to online reinforcement learning. Deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) have shown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Shreya Sinha-Roy , Richard G. Everitt , Christian P. Robert , Ritabrata Dutta

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-16 Théophile Cantelobre , Carlo Ciliberto , Benjamin Guedj , Alessandro Rudi

The discrete-time Distributed Bayesian Filtering (DBF) algorithm is presented for the problem of tracking a target dynamic model using a time-varying network of heterogeneous sensing agents. In the DBF algorithm, the sensing agents combine…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-07-10 Saptarshi Bandyopadhyay , Soon-Jo Chung

Filtering is a general name for inferring the states of a dynamical system given observations. The most common filtering approach is Gaussian Filtering (GF) where the distribution of the inferred states is a Gaussian whose mean is an affine…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-11-21 Arash Mehrjou , Bernhard Schölkopf

Ensemble transform Kalman filtering (ETKF) data assimilation is often used to combine available observations with numerical simulations to obtain statistically accurate and reliable state representations in dynamical systems. However, it is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-07 Tongtong Li , Anne Gelb , Yoonsang Lee

A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is formulated for advection-dominated or hyperbolic evolutionary problems, and observations. The method is referred to as the dynamic likelihood filter because it exploits the model physics to dynamically…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-04-26 Juan M. Restrepo

Data assimilation leads naturally to a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior probability distribution of the system state, given the observations, plays a central conceptual role. The aim of this paper is to use this Bayesian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-01 K. J. H. Law , A. M. Stuart

State estimation of dynamical systems is crucial for providing new decision-making and system automation information in different applications. However, the assumptions on the standard computational models for sensor measurements can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-25 Aamir Hussain Chughtai , Arslan Majal , Muhammad Tahir , Momin Uppal

Accurate modeling and prediction of complex physical systems often rely on data assimilation techniques to correct errors inherent in model simulations. Traditional methods like the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its variants as well as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Phillip Si , Peng Chen

A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is formulated for advection-dominated advective and diffusive evolutionary problems, based upon the Dynamic Likelihood (DLF) approach to filtering. The DLF was developed specifically for hyperbolic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-06-13 Johannes Krotz , Juan M. Restrepo , Jorge Ramirez

Data assimilation is the process of estimating the state of a dynamical system over time by combining model predictions with measurements. This task becomes challenging when the system is nonlinear and high-dimensional. To address this,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-22 Eunbi Yoon , Won Chang , Donghan Kim , Dae Wook Kim

Lagrangian data assimilation exploits the trajectories of moving tracers as observations to recover the underlying flow field. One major challenge in Lagrangian data assimilation is the intrinsic nonlinearity that impedes using exact…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-06-14 Nan Chen , Shubin Fu

We develop an algebraic framework for sequential data assimilation of partially observed dynamical systems. In this framework, Bayesian data assimilation is embedded in a non-abelian operator algebra, which provides a representation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-29 David Freeman , Dimitrios Giannakis , Brian Mintz , Abbas Ourmazd , Joanna Slawinska

Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are a general model for stochastic processes with partially observed states. Belief filtering in DBNs is the task of inferring the belief state (i.e. the probability distribution over process states) based…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-07-15 Stefano V. Albrecht , Subramanian Ramamoorthy

We present Neural Bayesian Filtering (NBF), an algorithm for maintaining distributions over hidden states, called beliefs, in partially observable systems. NBF is trained to find a good latent representation of the beliefs induced by a…

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