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Deep learning models frequently make incorrect predictions with high confidence when presented with test examples that are not well represented in their training dataset. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-04 Tiago Ramalho , Miguel Miranda

Neural networks are powerful tools in various applications, and quantifying their uncertainty is crucial for reliable decision-making. In the deep learning field, the uncertainties are usually categorized into aleatoric (data) and epistemic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-21 Wang Zhang , Ziwen Ma , Subhro Das , Tsui-Wei Weng , Alexandre Megretski , Luca Daniel , Lam M. Nguyen

Features in machine learning problems are often time-varying and may be related to outputs in an algebraic or dynamical manner. The dynamic nature of these machine learning problems renders current higher order accelerated gradient descent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-29 Joseph E. Gaudio , Travis E. Gibson , Anuradha M. Annaswamy , Michael A. Bolender

Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-19 Stefan Depeweg , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Finale Doshi-Velez , Steffen Udluft

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

Predictions of uncertainty-aware models are diverse, ranging from single point estimates (often averaged over prediction samples) to predictive distributions, to set-valued or credal-set representations. We propose a novel unified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Muhammad Mubashar , Kaizheng Wang , Fabio Cuzzolin

In Hezaveh et al. 2017 we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-29 Laurence Perreault Levasseur , Yashar D. Hezaveh , Risa H. Wechsler

This extended abstract introduces a class of graph learning applicable to cases where the underlying graph has polytopic uncertainty, i.e., the graph is not exactly known, but its parameters or properties vary within a known range. By…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-15 Masako Kishida , Shunsuke Ono

We study the fundamental problem of learning an unknown object from data using a prescribed model class. We introduce a unified framework that accommodates objects in arbitrary Hilbert spaces, general (possibly vector-valued) random linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Ben Adcock , Juan M. Cardenas , Nick Dexter

In problem solving, understanding the problem that one seeks to solve is an essential initial step. In this paper, we propose computational methods for facilitating problem understanding through the task of recognizing the unknown in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Ndapa Nakashole

As autonomous systems become more complex and integral in our society, the need to accurately model and safely control these systems has increased significantly. In the past decade, there has been tremendous success in using deep learning…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Hao Wang , Javier Borquez , Somil Bansal

Uncertainty estimation for machine learning models is of high importance in many scenarios such as constructing the confidence intervals for model predictions and detection of out-of-distribution or adversarially generated points. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Kirill Fedyanin , Evgenii Tsymbalov , Maxim Panov

Robust optimization (RO) provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but its performance critically depends on the choice of the uncertainty set. While large sets ensure reliability, they often lead to overly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Shuyi Chen , Wenbin Zhou , Shixiang Zhu

Image reconstruction methods based on deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance, equalling or exceeding the state-of-the-art results of conventional approaches, but often do not provide uncertainty information about the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Riccardo Barbano , Željko Kereta , Chen Zhang , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Extracting predictive models from nonlinear systems is a central task in scientific machine learning. One key problem is the reconciliation between modern data-driven approaches and first principles. Despite rapid advances in machine…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2021-12-03 Tom Z. Jiahao , M. Ani Hsieh , Eric Forgoston

Uncertainty-aware robot motion prediction is crucial for downstream traversability estimation and safe autonomous navigation in unstructured, off-road environments, where terrain is heterogeneous and perceptual uncertainty is high. Most…

We survey the problem of deciding the stability or stabilizability of uncertain linear systems whose region of uncertainty is a polytope. This natural setting has applications in many fields of applied science, from Control Theory to…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-02-12 Nikos Vlassis , Raphaël Jungers

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Eduardo Dadalto , Marco Romanelli , Georg Pichler , Pablo Piantanida

Model-based Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) assumes the availability of a model of an environment's underlying transition dynamics. This model can be used to predict future effects of an agent's possible actions. When no such model is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Andreas Sedlmeier , Michael Kölle , Robert Müller , Leo Baudrexel , Claudia Linnhoff-Popien

Equation learning aims to infer differential equation models from data. While a number of studies have shown that differential equation models can be successfully identified when the data are sufficiently detailed and corrupted with…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-30 Simon Martina-Perez , Matthew J. Simpson , Ruth E. Baker
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