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Machine unlearning seeks to remove the influence of specified data from a trained model. While the unlearning accuracy provides a widely used metric for assessing unlearning performance, it falls short in assessing the reliability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Yingdan Shi , Sijia Liu , Kaize Ding , Ren Wang

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Timo Kaiser , Thomas Norrenbrock , Bodo Rosenhahn

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Sooyong Jang , Insup Lee

Uncertainty quantification of complex technical systems is often based on a computer model of the system. As all models such a computer model is always wrong in the sense that it does not describe the reality perfectly. The purpose of this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-18 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

The deployment of safe and trustworthy machine learning systems, and particularly complex black box neural networks, in real-world applications requires reliable and certified guarantees on their performance. The conformal prediction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Paul Melki , Lionel Bombrun , Boubacar Diallo , Jérôme Dias , Jean-Pierre da Costa

Uncertainty quantification for neural operators remains an open problem in the infinite-dimensional setting due to the lack of finite-sample coverage guarantees over functional outputs. While conformal prediction offers finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-08 David Millard , Lars Lindemann , Ali Baheri

Quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) requires multi-phase acqui-sition, often relying on reduced data sampling and reconstruction algorithms to accelerate scans, which inherently poses an ill-posed inverse problem. While many…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-03 Haozhong Sun , Zhongsen Li , Chenlin Du , Haokun Li , Yajie Wang , Huijun Chen

We present an online and data-driven uncertainty quantification method to enable the development of safe human-robot collaboration applications. Safety and risk assessment of systems are strongly correlated with the accuracy of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Woo-Jeong Baek , Christoph Ledermann , Torsten Kröger

We propose a new probabilistic method for unsupervised recovery of corrupted data. Given a large ensemble of degraded samples, our method recovers accurate posteriors of clean values, allowing the exploration of the manifold of possible…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Francesco Tonolini , Pablo G. Moreno , Andreas Damianou , Roderick Murray-Smith

Operator learning has been increasingly adopted in scientific and engineering applications, many of which require calibrated uncertainty quantification. Since the output of operator learning is a continuous function, quantifying uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Ziqi Ma , Kamyar Azizzadenesheli , Anima Anandkumar

Parallel imaging techniques reduce magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan time but image quality degrades as the acceleration factor increases. In clinical practice, conservative acceleration factors are chosen because no mechanism exists to…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Ilias I. Giannakopoulos , Lokesh B Gautham Muthukumar , Yvonne W. Lui , Riccardo Lattanzi

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

Weighted conformal prediction (WCP) has been commonly used to quantify prediction uncertainty under covariate shift. However, the effectiveness of WCP relies heavily on the degree of overlap between the training and test covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Mufang Ying , Wenge Guo , Koulik Khamaru , Ying Hung

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Sebastian G. Gruber

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

The regulatory approval and broad clinical deployment of medical AI have been hampered by the perception that deep learning models fail in unpredictable and possibly catastrophic ways. A lack of statistically rigorous uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-07 Charles Lu , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stuart Pomerantz