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Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…

Climate statistics is of course a very broad field, along with the many connections and impacts for yet other areas, with a history as long as mankind has been recording temperatures, describing drastic weather events, etc. The important…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Nils Lid Hjort

The spatiotemporal variation in tropical air-sea interaction is investigated by applying a simple model that considers the fundamental dynamics in tropical oceans. The model decomposes sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variation into a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-31 Yaokun Li

Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-07 Marios Andreou , Nan Chen

The multiscale and turbulent nature of Earth's atmosphere has historically rendered accurate weather modeling a hard problem. Recently, there has been an explosion of interest surrounding data-driven approaches to weather modeling, which in…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-07-08 Seth Minor , Daniel A. Messenger , Vanja Dukic , David M. Bortz

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of extreme temperature patterns using emerging statistical machine learning techniques. Our research focuses on exploring and comparing the effectiveness of various statistical models for…

Applications · Statistics 2023-07-27 Kameron B. Kinast , Ernest Fokoué

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-04-16 Nan Chen , Xianghui Fang , Jin-Yi Yu

We briefly review some of the scientific challenges and epistemological issues related to climate science. We discuss the formulation and testing of theories and numerical models, which, given the presence of unavoidable uncertainties in…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2022-03-31 Valerio Lucarini

Atmospheric processes involve both space and time. This is why human analysis of atmospheric imagery can often extract more information from animated loops of image sequences than from individual images. Automating such an analysis requires…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-26 Akansha Singh Bansal , Yoonjin Lee , Kyle Hilburn , Imme Ebert-Uphoff

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-16 Christian L. E. Franzke , Terence J. O'Kane , Judith Berner , Paul D. Williams , Valerio Lucarini

In recent years extensive studies on the Earth's climate system have been carried out by means of advanced complex network statistics. The great majority of these studies, however, have been focusing on investigating correlation structures…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-10-20 Marc Wiedermann , Jonathan F. Donges , Dörthe Handorf , Jürgen Kurths , Reik V. Donner

Complex network theory provides a powerful framework to statistically investigate the topology of local and non-local statistical interrelationships, i.e. teleconnections, in the climate system. Climate networks constructed from the same…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-07-27 Jonathan F. Donges , Yong Zou , Norbert Marwan , Jürgen Kurths

The climate is a forced and dissipative nonlinear system featuring non-trivial dynamics of a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. The understanding of the climate's structural and multiscale properties is crucial for the provision of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-17 Valerio Lucarini , Richard Blender , Corentin Herbert , Salvatore Pascale , Francesco Ragone , Jeroen Wouters

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…

Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-09-09 Ibiyinka Fuwape , Sunday Oluyamo , Babatunde Rabiu , Samuel Ogunjo

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-04 Griffin Mooers , Tom Beucler , Mike Pritchard , Stephan Mandt

Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-05-26 Mark S. Williamson , Chad W. Thackeray , Peter M. Cox , Alex Hall , Chris Huntingford , Femke J. M. M. Nijsse

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a critical tool for monitoring drought conditions, typically relying on normalized accumulated precipitation. While longer historical records of precipitation yield more accurate parameter…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-22 Touqeer Ahmad , Taha Hasan

This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Christina Winkler , David Rolnick