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Model risk measures consequences of choosing a model in a class of possible alternatives. We find analytical and simulated bounds for payoff functions on classes of plausible alternatives of a given discrete model. We measure the impact of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-20 Roberto Fontana , Patrizia Semeraro

Memory units have been widely used to enrich the capabilities of deep networks on capturing long-term dependencies in reasoning and prediction tasks, but little investigation exists on deep generative models (DGMs) which are good at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-31 Chongxuan Li , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

Despite the tremendous progress in the estimation of generative models, the development of tools for diagnosing their failures and assessing their performance has advanced at a much slower pace. Recent developments have investigated metrics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Josip Djolonga , Mario Lucic , Marco Cuturi , Olivier Bachem , Olivier Bousquet , Sylvain Gelly

Modeling financial time series by stochastic processes is a challenging task and a central area of research in financial mathematics. As an alternative, we introduce Quant GANs, a data-driven model which is inspired by the recent success of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-07 Magnus Wiese , Robert Knobloch , Ralf Korn , Peter Kretschmer

A temporal point process is a mathematical model for a time series of discrete events, which covers various applications. Recently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have been developed for point processes and have been found…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-13 Takahiro Omi , Naonori Ueda , Kazuyuki Aihara

Deep generative neural networks (DGNNs) have achieved realistic and high-quality data generation. In particular, the adversarial training scheme has been applied to many DGNNs and has exhibited powerful performance. Despite of recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-13 Giyoung Jeon , Haedong Jeong , Jaesik Choi

We propose methods for density estimation and data synthesis using a novel form of unsupervised random forests. Inspired by generative adversarial networks, we implement a recursive procedure in which trees gradually learn structural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-14 David S. Watson , Kristin Blesch , Jan Kapar , Marvin N. Wright

We propose a novel model-selection method for dynamic networks. Our approach involves training a classifier on a large body of synthetic network data. The data is generated by simulating nine state-of-the-art random graph models for dynamic…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Lourens Touwen , Doina Bucur , Remco van der Hofstad , Alessandro Garavaglia , Nelly Litvak

Conditional density estimation is a general framework for solving various problems in machine learning. Among existing methods, non-parametric and/or kernel-based methods are often difficult to use on large datasets, while methods based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-06 Hiroaki Sasaki , Aapo Hyvärinen

Bounded rationality investigates utility-optimizing decision-makers with limited information-processing power. In particular, information theoretic bounded rationality models formalize resource constraints abstractly in terms of relative…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-07 Heinke Hihn , Sebastian Gottwald , Daniel A. Braun

Generative neural samplers are probabilistic models that implement sampling using feedforward neural networks: they take a random input vector and produce a sample from a probability distribution defined by the network weights. These models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-03 Sebastian Nowozin , Botond Cseke , Ryota Tomioka

Prognostic models in survival analysis are aimed at understanding the relationship between patients' covariates and the distribution of survival time. Traditionally, semi-parametric models, such as the Cox model, have been assumed. These…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-06 Denise Rava , Jelena Bradic

The use of machine learning to generate synthetic data has grown in popularity with the proliferation of text-to-image models and especially large language models. The core methodology these models use is to learn the distribution of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-28 Ruslan Tepelyan , Achintya Gopal

Temporal networks allow representing connections between objects while incorporating the temporal dimension. While static network models can capture unchanging topological regularities, they often fail to model the effects associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Mathilde Perez , Raphaël Romero , Bo Kang , Tijl De Bie , Jefrey Lijffijt , Charlotte Laclau

We present a probabilistic 3D generative model, named Generative Cellular Automata, which is able to produce diverse and high quality shapes. We formulate the shape generation process as sampling from the transition kernel of a Markov…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Dongsu Zhang , Changwoon Choi , Jeonghwan Kim , Young Min Kim

In light of the recent advancements in machine learning, we propose a novel approach to neutron source distribution estimation through the utilisation of probabilistic generative models. The estimation is based on a Monte Carlo particle…

Instrumentation and Detectors · Physics 2026-05-13 Jose Ignacio Robledo , Norberto Schmidt , Klaus Lieutenant , Jingjing Li , Stefan Kesselheim , Paul Zakalek

In many real-world problems, there is a limited set of training data, but an abundance of unlabeled data. We propose a new method, Generative Posterior Networks (GPNs), that uses unlabeled data to estimate epistemic uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Melrose Roderick , Felix Berkenkamp , Fatemeh Sheikholeslami , Zico Kolter

In this article we show how the problem of neural text generation can be constructively reformulated in terms of transitions between the states of a finite-state machine. This framework leads to an efficient approach to guiding text…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Brandon T. Willard , Rémi Louf

This paper presents a systematic survey on recent development of neural text generation models. Specifically, we start from recurrent neural network language models with the traditional maximum likelihood estimation training scheme and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-03-21 Sidi Lu , Yaoming Zhu , Weinan Zhang , Jun Wang , Yong Yu

Neural networks serve as effective controllers in a variety of complex settings due to their ability to represent expressive policies. The complex nature of neural networks, however, makes their output difficult to verify and predict, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Sydney M. Katz , Kyle D. Julian , Christopher A. Strong , Mykel J. Kochenderfer
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