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This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-05-19 M. C. Garrido , P. E. Lopez-de-Teruel , A. Ruiz

In this letter, we present a novel exponentially embedded families (EEF) based classification method, in which the probability density function (PDF) on raw data is estimated from the PDF on features. With the PDF construction, we show that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-24 Bo Tang , Steven Kay , Haibo He , Paul M. Baggenstoss

Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations remains a significant challenge in many scientific domains. We propose normalizing flow regression (NFR), a novel offline inference method for approximating posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-17 Chengkun Li , Bobby Huggins , Petrus Mikkola , Luigi Acerbi

In the past few years, deep generative models, such as generative adversarial networks \autocite{GAN}, variational autoencoders \autocite{vaepaper}, and their variants, have seen wide adoption for the task of modelling complex data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-02 Guilherme G. P. Freitas Pires , Mário A. T. Figueiredo

Causality is vital for understanding true cause-and-effect relationships between variables within predictive models, rather than relying on mere correlations, making it highly relevant in the field of Explainable AI. In an automated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Arturo Fredes , Jordi Vitria

The concept of counterfactual explanations (CE) has emerged as one of the important concepts to understand the inner workings of complex AI systems. In this paper, we translate the idea of CEs to linear optimization and propose, motivate,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-27 Jannis Kurtz , Ş. İlker Birbil , Dick den Hertog

Flexible models for probability distributions are an essential ingredient in many machine learning tasks. We develop and investigate a new class of probability distributions, which we call a Squared Neural Family (SNEFY), formed by squaring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Russell Tsuchida , Cheng Soon Ong , Dino Sejdinovic

Counterfactual explanation methods have recently received significant attention for explaining CNN-based image classifiers due to their ability to provide easily understandable explanations that align more closely with human reasoning.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Syed Ali Tariq , Tehseen Zia

Normalizing flows define a probability distribution by an explicit invertible transformation $\boldsymbol{\mathbf{z}}=f(\boldsymbol{\mathbf{x}})$. In this work, we present implicit normalizing flows (ImpFlows), which generalize normalizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-18 Cheng Lu , Jianfei Chen , Chongxuan Li , Qiuhao Wang , Jun Zhu

Physics-constrained generative modeling aims to produce high-dimensional samples that are both physically consistent and distributionally accurate, a task that remains challenging due to often conflicting optimization objectives. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Baldan , Qiang Liu , Alberto Guardone , Nils Thuerey

As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Stratis Tsirtsis , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Many of the traditional recommendation algorithms are designed based on the fundamental idea of mining or learning correlative patterns from data to estimate the user-item correlative preference. However, pure correlative learning may lead…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Shuyuan Xu , Yingqiang Ge , Yunqi Li , Zuohui Fu , Xu Chen , Yongfeng Zhang

Counterfactual explanations emerge as a powerful approach in explainable AI, providing what-if scenarios that reveal how minimal changes to an input time series can alter the model's prediction. This work presents a survey of recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Udo Schlegel , Thomas Seidl

Counterfactual analysis is intuitively performed by humans on a daily basis eg. "What should I have done differently to get the loan approved?". Such counterfactual questions also steer the formulation of scientific hypotheses. More…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Juliane Weilbach , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir , Martin Fraenzle

Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible distributions over functions that enable high-level assumptions about unknown functions to be encoded in a parsimonious, flexible and general way. Although elegant, the application of GPs is limited by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-06 Thang D. Bui , Josiah Yan , Richard E. Turner

Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a promising method for elucidating the behavior of opaque black-box models. Recently, several works leveraged pixel-space diffusion models for counterfactual generation. To handle noisy,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Karim Farid , Simon Schrodi , Max Argus , Thomas Brox

Traditional state estimation methods rely on probabilistic assumptions that often collapse epistemic uncertainty into scalar beliefs, risking overconfidence in sparse or adversarial sensing environments. We introduce the Epistemic…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Moriba Jah , Van Haslett

Chance-constrained optimization has emerged as a promising framework for managing uncertainties in power systems. This work advances its application to the DC Optimal Power Flow (DC-OPF) model, developing a novel approach to uncertainty…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-18 Tianyang Yi , D. Adrian Maldonado , Anirudh Subramanyam

Counterfactual explanations are emerging as an attractive option for providing recourse to individuals adversely impacted by algorithmic decisions. As they are deployed in critical applications (e.g. law enforcement, financial lending), it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Dylan Slack , Sophie Hilgard , Himabindu Lakkaraju , Sameer Singh

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines
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