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In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

The use of deep learning for medical imaging has seen tremendous growth in the research community. One reason for the slow uptake of these systems in the clinical setting is that they are complex, opaque and tend to fail silently. Outside…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Terrance DeVries , Graham W. Taylor

Current person image retrieval methods have achieved great improvements in accuracy metrics. However, they rarely describe the reliability of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an Uncertainty-Aware Learning (UAL) method to remedy…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Zhaopeng Dou , Zhongdao Wang , Weihua Chen , Yali Li , Shengjin Wang

Uncertainty estimation in machine learning has traditionally focused on the prediction stage, aiming to quantify confidence in model outputs while treating learned representations as deterministic and reliable by default. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Yiyao Yang

Deep learning techniques show success in detecting objects in medical images, but still suffer from false-positive predictions that may hinder accurate diagnosis. The estimated uncertainty of the neural network output has been used to flag…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-03 Ishaan Bhat , Josien P. W. Pluim , Max A. Viergever , Hugo J. Kuijf

Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (MLIPs) achieve near ab initio accuracy at a fraction of the cost of quantum-mechanical simulations, yet they remain prone to silent failures on out-of-distribution configurations, making principled…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Olga Zaghen , Maksim Zhdanov , Dario Coscia , David R. Wessels , Erik J. Bekkers

Comparing the representations learned by different neural networks has recently emerged as a key tool to understand various architectures and ultimately optimize them. In this work, we introduce GULP, a family of distance measures between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Enric Boix-Adsera , Hannah Lawrence , George Stepaniants , Philippe Rigollet

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Maximilian Muschalik , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Real-time crack segmentation is vital for structural health monitoring but is plagued by aleatoric uncertainties arising from varying lighting, blur, and texture ambiguity. Current uncertainty-aware approaches typically treat uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Conghui Li , Huanyu He , Xin Wang , Weiyao Lin , Chern Hong Lim

Many important problems in the real world don't have unique solutions. It is thus important for machine learning models to be capable of proposing different plausible solutions with meaningful probability measures. In this work we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Di Qiu , Lok Ming Lui

Uncertainty estimation has been widely studied in medical image segmentation as a tool to provide reliability, particularly in deep learning approaches. However, previous methods generally lack effective supervision in uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Yuzhu Li , An Sui , Fuping Wu , Xiahai Zhuang

In healthcare applications, predictive uncertainty has been used to assess predictive accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that predictive uncertainty estimated by the current methods does not highly correlate with prediction error by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-08 Shi Hu , Nicola Pezzotti , Max Welling

Traversability estimation in rugged, unstructured environments remains a challenging problem in field robotics. Often, the need for precise, accurate traversability estimation is in direct opposition to the limited sensing and compute…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Samuel Triest , David D. Fan , Sebastian Scherer , Ali-Akbar Agha-Mohammadi

In machine learning, accurately predicting the probability that a specific input is correct is crucial for risk management. This process, known as uncertainty (or confidence) estimation, is particularly important in mission-critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Gabriella Chouraqui , Liron Cohen , Gil Einziger , Liel Leman

Deterministic uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning aims to estimate uncertainty with a single pass through a network by leveraging outputs from the network's feature extractor. Existing methods require that the feature extractor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Felix Jimenez , Matthias Katzfuss

Despite the recent success of image-text contrastive models like CLIP and SigLIP, these models often struggle with vision-centric tasks that demand high-fidelity image understanding, such as counting, depth estimation, and fine-grained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Zineng Tang , Long Lian , Seun Eisape , XuDong Wang , Roei Herzig , Adam Yala , Alane Suhr , Trevor Darrell , David M. Chan

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and materials properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Albert Zhu , Simon Batzner , Albert Musaelian , Boris Kozinsky

Turning pass-through network architectures into iterative ones, which use their own output as input, is a well-known approach for boosting performance. In this paper, we argue that such architectures offer an additional benefit: The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Nikita Durasov , Doruk Oner , Jonathan Donier , Hieu Le , Pascal Fua

Uncertainty estimation is an important task for critical problems, such as robotics and autonomous driving, because it allows creating statistically better perception models and signaling the model's certainty in its predictions to the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Illia Oleksiienko , Paraskevi Nousi , Nikolaos Passalis , Anastasios Tefas , Alexandros Iosifidis