Related papers: Mixing it up: Inflation at risk

Recent years have seen the introduction of various multi-field inflationary scenarios in which the curvature and geodesics of the scalar manifold play a crucial role. We outline a simple description that unifies these different proposals…

Economic hardships significantly affect public perception and voting intentions in general elections. The primary focus of my study is to capture the degree of influence that individual economic hardships have on their voting. I utilize the…

The modal factor model represents a new factor model for dimension reduction in high dimensional panel data. Unlike the approximate factor model that targets for the mean factors, it captures factors that influence the conditional mode of…

In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model…

Using the latest observational data, we constrain the inflationary dynamics and the subsequent reheating epoch. Predictions for both phases can be significantly improved by employing numerically computed results compared to the slow-roll…

This paper uses predictive densities obtained via mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models to evaluate the statistical sustainability of Brazilian inflation targeting system with the tolerance bounds. The probabilities give an…

Factor models characterize the joint behavior of large sets of financial assets through a smaller number of underlying drivers. We develop a network-based framework in which factors emerge naturally from the structure of interactions among…

In this paper we consider a mean-field model of interacting diffusions for the monetary reserves in which the reserves are subjected to a self- and cross-exciting shock. This is motivated by the financial acceleration and fire sales…

The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of…

A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of…

This paper reviews some of the phenomenological models which have been introduced to incorporate the scaling properties of financial data. It also illustrates a microscopic model, based on heterogeneous interacting agents, which provides a…

The complexity and ambiguity of financial and economic systems, along with frequent changes in the economic environment, have made it difficult to make precise predictions that are supported by theory-consistent explanations. Interpreting…

A new family of inflationary models is introduced and analysed. The behaviour of the parameters characterising the models suggest preferred values, which generate the most interesting testable predictions. Results are further improved if…

We review the main aspects of the warm inflation scenario, focusing on the inflationary dynamics and the predictions related to the primordial spectrum of perturbations, to be compared with the recent cosmological observations. We study in…

The document provides an overview of financial climate risks. It delves into how climate change impacts the global financial system, distinguishing between physical risks (such as extreme weather events) and transition risks (stemming from…

In this paper, we analyze the long-term distributive impact of climate change through rising food prices. We use a standard incomplete markets model and account for non-linear Engel curves for food consumption. For the calibration of our…

We study the properties of macroeconomic survey forecast response averages as the number of survey respondents grows. Such averages are ``portfolios" of forecasts. We characterize the speed and pattern of the gains from diversification as a…

We present empirical evidence on the relationship between demand shocks and price changes, conditional on returns to scale. We find that in industries with decreasing returns to scale, demand increases (which raise costs) correspond to…

This paper constructs a global economic policy uncertainty index through the principal component analysis of the economic policy uncertainty indices for twenty primary economies around the world. We find that the PCA-based global economic…

A growing number of applications involve settings where, in order to infer heterogeneous effects, a researcher compares various units. Examples of research designs include children moving between different neighborhoods, workers moving…