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This paper is concerned with a simulation study for a stochastic production network model, where the capacities of machines may change randomly. We introduce performance measures motivated by risk measures from finance leading to a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-14 Simone Göttlich , Stephan Knapp

Fitting models to data is an important part of the practice of science. Advances in machine learning have made it possible to fit more -- and more complex -- models, but have also exacerbated a problem: when multiple models fit the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Alexandre René , André Longtin

We study procurement design when the buyer is uncertain about both the value of the good and the seller's cost. The buyer has a conjectured model but does not fully trust it. She first identifies mechanisms that maximize her worst-case…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-12-10 Debasis Mishra , Sanket Patil , Alessandro Pavan

This paper studies nonparametric identification and counterfactual bounds for heterogeneous firms that can be ranked in terms of productivity. Our approach works when quantities and prices are latent, rendering standard approaches…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-07 Victor H. Aguiar , Nail Kashaev , Roy Allen

We study the following fundamental data-driven pricing problem. How can/should a decision-maker price its product based on data at a single historical price? How valuable is such data? We consider a decision-maker who optimizes over…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-03-30 Amine Allouah , Achraf Bahamou , Omar Besbes

In the mechanism design theory, a designer would like to implement a desired social choice function which specifies her favorite outcome for each possible profile of all agents' types. Traditionally, the designer may be in a dilemma in the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Haoyang Wu

Statistical and structural modeling represent two distinct approaches to data analysis. In this paper, we propose a set of novel methods for combining statistical and structural models for improved prediction and causal inference. Our first…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-11 Jiaming Mao , Jingzhi Xu

We introduce a novel generative formulation of deep probabilistic models implementing "soft" constraints on their function dynamics. In particular, we develop a flexible methodological framework where the modeled functions and derivatives…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-19 Marco Lorenzi , Maurizio Filippone

We present a methodology for representing probabilistic relationships in a general-equilibrium economic model. Specifically, we define a precise mapping from a Bayesian network with binary nodes to a market price system where consumers and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-02-18 David M. Pennock , Michael P. Wellman

We provide efficient estimation methods for first- and second-price auctions under independent (asymmetric) private values and partial observability. Given a finite set of observations, each comprising the identity of the winner and the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Yeshwanth Cherapanamjeri , Constantinos Daskalakis , Andrew Ilyas , Manolis Zampetakis

We develop a nonparametric approach to identify and estimate consumer preferences and unobserved heterogeneity under nonlinear price schedules. Leveraging variation across multiple price schedules, we show that both the utility function and…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-29 Samuele Centorrino , Frédérique Fève , Jean-Pierre Florens

In this paper we consider the problem of inference on a class of sets describing a collection of admissible models as solutions to a single smooth inequality. Classical and recent examples include, among others, the Hansen-Jagannathan (HJ)…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-20 Victor Chernozhukov , Emre Kocatulum , Konrad Menzel

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

We propose to study market efficiency from a computational viewpoint. Borrowing from theoretical computer science, we define a market to be \emph{efficient with respect to resources $S$} (e.g., time, memory) if no strategy using resources…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2009-09-01 Jasmina Hasanhodzic , Andrew W. Lo , Emanuele Viola

Latent space models are powerful statistical tools for modeling and understanding network data. While the importance of accounting for uncertainty in network analysis has been well recognized, the current literature predominantly focuses on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-15 Jinming Li , Shihao Wu , Chengyu Cui , Gongjun Xu , Ji Zhu

In many settings, robust data analysis involves computational methods for uncertainty quantification and statistical inference. To design frequentist studies that leverage robust analysis methods, suitable sample sizes to achieve desired…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-19 Luke Hagar , Andrew J. Martin

How should a buyer design procurement mechanisms when suppliers' costs are unknown, and the buyer does not have a prior belief? We demonstrate that simple mechanisms - that share a constant fraction of the buyer utility with the seller -…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-12-11 Dirk Bergemann , Tibor Heumann , Stephen Morris

Customer retention campaigns increasingly rely on predictive models to detect potential churners in a vast customer base. From the perspective of machine learning, the task of predicting customer churn can be presented as a binary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-22 Sebastiaan Höppner , Eugen Stripling , Bart Baesens , Seppe vanden Broucke , Tim Verdonck

The problem of designing a profit-maximizing, Bayesian incentive compatible and individually rational mechanism with flexible consumers and costly heterogeneous supply is considered. In our setup, each consumer is associated with a…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2018-02-01 Shiva Navabi , Ashutosh Nayyar

Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli , Matteo Schiavone