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While scaling laws for Large Language Models (LLMs) traditionally focus on proxy metrics like pretraining loss, predicting downstream task performance has been considered unreliable. This paper challenges that view by proposing a direct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Jakub Krajewski , Amitis Shidani , Dan Busbridge , Sam Wiseman , Jason Ramapuram

Within the scaling laws paradigm, which underpins the training of large neural networks like ChatGPT and Llama, we consider a supervised regression setting and establish the existance of a strong form of the model collapse phenomenon, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Elvis Dohmatob , Yunzhen Feng , Arjun Subramonian , Julia Kempe

Neural scaling laws have driven significant advancements in machine learning, particularly in domains like language modeling and computer vision. However, the exploration of neural scaling laws within robotics has remained relatively…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Sebastian Sartor , Neil Thompson

Large language model pre-training has become increasingly expensive, with most practitioners relying on scaling laws to allocate compute budgets for model size and training tokens, commonly referred to as Compute-Optimal or Chinchilla…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Zhen Guo

While protein language models (pLMs) have transformed biological research, the scaling laws governing their improvement remain underexplored. By adapting methodologies from NLP scaling laws, we investigated the optimal ratio between model…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-27 Yaiza Serrano , Álvaro Ciudad , Alexis Molina

The scaling law is becoming a fundamental law in many machine learning areas. That is, test error falls off with the power law when increasing training data, model size, and computing resource. However, whether this law is suitable for the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Jiayi Lin , Hande Dong , Yutao Xie , Lei Zhang

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we…

Running faster will only get you so far -- it is generally advisable to first understand where the roads lead, then get a car ... The renaissance of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) over the last decade is accompanied by an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Jonathan S. Rosenfeld

Scaling laws provide important insights that can guide the design of large language models (LLMs). Existing work has primarily focused on studying scaling laws for pretraining (upstream) loss. However, in transfer learning settings, in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Berivan Isik , Natalia Ponomareva , Hussein Hazimeh , Dimitris Paparas , Sergei Vassilvitskii , Sanmi Koyejo

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 David Brandfonbrener , Nikhil Anand , Nikhil Vyas , Eran Malach , Sham Kakade

Tokenization is a fundamental step in natural language processing (NLP) and other sequence modeling domains, where the choice of vocabulary size significantly impacts model performance. Despite its importance, selecting an optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Yanjin He , Qingkai Zeng , Meng Jiang

Pretraining data of large language models composes multiple domains (e.g., web texts, academic papers, codes), whose mixture proportions crucially impact the competence of outcome models. While existing endeavors rely on heuristics or…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Jiasheng Ye , Peiju Liu , Tianxiang Sun , Jun Zhan , Yunhua Zhou , Xipeng Qiu

The scaling laws have become the de facto guidelines for designing large language models (LLMs), but they were studied under the assumption of unlimited computing resources for both training and inference. As LLMs are increasingly used as…

Large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable advances in recent years, with scaling laws playing a critical role in this rapid progress. In this paper, we empirically investigate how a critical hyper-parameter, i.e., the global batch…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Xian Shuai , Yiding Wang , Yimeng Wu , Xin Jiang , Xiaozhe Ren

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for reasoning tasks using reinforcement learning methods like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is computationally expensive. To address this, we propose a predictive framework that models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Datta Nimmaturi , Vaishnavi Bhargava , Rajat Ghosh , Johnu George , Debojyoti Dutta

The prediction of learning curves for Natural Language Processing (NLP) models enables informed decision-making to meet specific performance objectives, while reducing computational overhead and lowering the costs associated with dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Viktoria Schram , Markus Hiller , Daniel Beck , Trevor Cohn

While scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) during pre-training have been extensively studied, their behavior under reinforcement learning (RL) post-training remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a systematic empirical…

Scaling laws describe how language models improve with additional data, parameters, and compute. While widely used, they are typically measured on aggregate test sets. Aggregate evaluations yield clean trends but average over heterogeneous…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-16 William Held , David Hall , Percy Liang , Diyi Yang

Precise estimation of downstream performance in large language models (LLMs) prior to training is essential for guiding their development process. Scaling laws analysis utilizes the statistics of a series of significantly smaller sampling…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Yangyi Chen , Binxuan Huang , Yifan Gao , Zhengyang Wang , Jingfeng Yang , Heng Ji

Neural scaling laws--power-law relationships between generalization errors and characteristics of deep learning models--are vital tools for developing reliable models while managing limited resources. Although the success of large language…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Tilen Cadez , Kyoung-Min Kim