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The multinomial model is one of the simplest statistical models. When constraints are placed on the possible values for the probabilities, however, it becomes much more difficult to deal with. Model checking and checking for prior-data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-22 Berthold-Georg Englert , Michael Evans , Gun Ho Jang , Hui Khoon Ng , David Nott , Yi-Lin Seah

This paper investigates large-population stochastic control problems in which agents share their state information and cooperate to minimize a convex cost functional. The latter is decomposed into individual and coupling costs, with the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Elise Devey

We consider the problem of strategic classification, where a learner must build a model to classify agents based on features that have been strategically modified. Previous work in this area has concentrated on the case when the learner is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Jack Geary , Henry Gouk

Traditional statistical theory assumes that the analysis to be performed on a given data set is selected independently of the data themselves. This assumption breaks downs when data are re-used across analyses and the analysis to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-06 Adam Smith

Dynamics, the study of change, is normally the subject of mechanics. Whether the chosen mechanics is ``fundamental'' and deterministic or ``phenomenological'' and stochastic, all changes are described relative to an external time. Here we…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-10-31 Ariel Caticha

When ranking big data observations such as colleges in the United States, diverse consumers reveal heterogeneous preferences. The objective of this paper is to sort out a linear ordering for these observations and to recommend strategies to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-30 Xingwei Hu

Stable states in complex systems correspond to local minima on the associated potential energy surface. Transitions between these local minima govern the dynamics of such systems. Precisely determining the transition pathways in complex and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Adittya Pal

A key issue in the control of distributed discrete systems modeled as Markov decisions processes, is that often the state of the system is not directly observable at any single location in the system. The participants in the control scheme…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-05-01 Jie Ren , Solmaz Torabi , John MacLaren Walsh

Using theory and experiments, this paper shows that the difficulty of making tradeoffs offers a parsimonious explanation for a wide range of behavioral phenomena. We develop a model of imprecise comparisons applicable to multiattribute,…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-01 Cassidy Shubatt , Jeffrey Yang

This paper presents a novel study on gas-like models for economic systems. The interacting agents and the amount of exchanged money at each trade are selected with different levels of randomness, from a purely random way to a more chaotic…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2009-01-09 Carmen Pellicer-Lostao , Ricardo Lopez-Ruiz

An information based method for solving stochastic control problems with partial observation has been proposed. First, the information-theoretic lower bounds of the cost function has been analysed. It has been shown, under rather weak…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-21 Piotr Bania

We consider a model for a population in a heterogeneous environment, with logistic type local population dynamics, under the assumption that individuals can switch between two different nonzero rates of diffusion. Such switching behavior…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-01-14 Robert Stephen Cantrell , Chris Cosner , Xiao Yu

We study systems of interacting reinforced stochastic processes, where agents' decisions evolve under reinforcement, network-mediated interactions, and environmental influences. In competitive environments with irreducible networks, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Michele Aleandri , Paolo Dai Pra , Ida Germana Minelli

Stochastic comparisons of series and parallel systems are important in many areas of engineering, operations research and reliability analysis. These comparisons allow for the evaluation of the performance and reliability of systems under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-09 CM Revathi , Rajesh Moharana , Raju Bhakta

Emphatic algorithms are temporal-difference learning algorithms that change their effective state distribution by selectively emphasizing and de-emphasizing their updates on different time steps. Recent works by Sutton, Mahmood and White…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-07-07 A. Rupam Mahmood , Huizhen Yu , Martha White , Richard S. Sutton

In this paper, we investigate the effects of applying generalised (non-exponential) discounting on a long-run impulse control problem for a Feller-Markov process. We show that the optimal value of the discounted problem is the same as the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-22 Damian Jelito , Łukasz Stettner

The paper deals with a problem of control of a system characterized by the fact that the influence of controls on the dynamics of certain functions of state variables (called observables) is relatively weak and the rates of change of these…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-08-12 Vladimir Gaitsgory , Sergey Rossomakhine

For a sample of Exponentially distributed durations we aim at point estimation and a confidence interval for its parameter. A duration is only observed if it has ended within a certain time interval, determined by a Uniform distribution.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Rafael Weißbach , Dominik Wied

We provide two methodological insights on \emph{ex ante} policy evaluation for macro models of economic development. First, we show that the problems of parameter instability and lack of behavioral constancy can be overcome by considering…

General Economics · Economics 2019-02-04 Gonzalo Castaeda , Omar A. Guerrero

We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-meter dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-26 Pawel Sobkowicz , Robert H Frank , Alessio E Biondo , Alessandro Pluchino , Andrea Rapisarda