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A further understanding of cause and effect within observational data is critical across many domains, such as economics, health care, public policy, web mining, online advertising, and marketing campaigns. Although significant advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li

This paper provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption (also known as selection on observables or conditional independence). Specifically, we estimate and do…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-01 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier , Linqi Zhang

The pharmaceutical industry is plagued by the problem of side effects that can occur anytime a prescribed medication is ingested. There has been a recent interest in using the vast quantities of medical data available in longitudinal…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-09-22 Jenna Reps , Jonathan M. Garibaldi , Uwe Aickelin , Daniele Soria , Jack E. Gibson , Richard B. Hubbard

A data science task can be deemed as making sense of the data or testing a hypothesis about it. The conclusions inferred from data can greatly guide us to make informative decisions. Big data has enabled us to carry out countless prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Wenhao Zhang , Ramin Ramezani , Arash Naeim

Observational studies are a key resource for causal inference but are often affected by systematic biases. Prior work has focused mainly on detecting these biases, via sensitivity analyses and comparisons with randomized controlled trials,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Ilker Demirel , Zeshan Hussain , Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , David Sontag

To estimate direct and indirect effects of an exposure on an outcome from observed data strong assumptions about unconfoundedness are required. Since these assumptions cannot be tested using the observed data, a mediation analysis should…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-29 Anita Lindmark , Xavier de Luna , Marie Eriksson

The classical notion of causal effect identifiability is defined in terms of treatment and outcome variables. In this paper, we consider the identifiability of state-based causal effects: how an intervention on a particular state of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Yizuo Chen , Adnan Darwiche

The test-negative design has become popular for evaluating the effectiveness of post-licensure vaccines using observational data. In addition to its logistical convenience on data collection, the design is also believed to control for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Soumyabrata Kundu , Peng Ding , Jingshu Wang , Xinran Li

Many scientific questions in biomedical, environmental, and psychological research involve understanding the effects of multiple factors on outcomes. While factorial experiments are ideal for this purpose, randomized controlled treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-03 Ruoqi Yu , Peng Ding

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional confidence interval (CI) for a treatment effect is prone to undesirable properties such as undercoverage and potential inconsistency with the final hypothesis testing decision. Accordingly, as…

Many public health interventions are conducted in settings where individuals are connected to one another and the intervention assigned to randomly selected individuals may spill over to other individuals they are connected to. In these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Junhan Fang , Donna Spiegelman , Ashley Buchanan , Laura Forastiere

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Zhixuan Chu , Jianmin Huang , Ruopeng Li , Wei Chu , Sheng Li

We propose a method to test for the presence of differential ascertainment in case-control studies, when data are collected by multiple sources. We show that, when differential ascertainment is present, the use of only the observed cases…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-07 Matteo Sordello , Dylan S. Small

We propose a new estimator for average causal effects of a binary treatment with panel data in settings with general treatment patterns. Our approach augments the popular two-way-fixed-effects specification with unit-specific weights that…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-06 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens , Lihua Lei , Xiaoman Luo

The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to identify and estimate the causal effect of a treatment using observational data. In an RDD, a pre-specified rule is used for treatment assignment,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-05 Panayiota Constantinou , Aidan G. O'Keeffe

In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA)…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Zhaonan Qu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Jizhou Liu , Guido Imbens

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

To conduct causal inference in observational settings, researchers must rely on certain identifying assumptions. In practice, these assumptions are unlikely to hold exactly. This paper considers the bias of selection-on-observables,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Melody Huang , Cory McCartan

Consider sensitivity analysis to assess the worst-case possible values of counterfactual outcome means and average treatment effects under sequential unmeasured confounding in a longitudinal study with time-varying treatments and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-31 Zhiqiang Tan