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Animals are known to make efficient probabilistic inferences based on uncertain and noisy information from the outside world. Although it is known that generic neural networks can perform near-optimal point estimation by probabilistic…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-10 Kohei Ichikawa , Asaki Kataoka

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Recurrent neural networks have achieved great success in many NLP tasks. However, they have difficulty in parallelization because of the recurrent structure, so it takes much time to train RNNs. In this paper, we introduce sliced recurrent…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-07-09 Zeping Yu , Gongshen Liu

A temporal point process is a stochastic process that predicts which type of events is likely to happen and when the event will occur given a history of a sequence of events. There are various examples of occurrence dynamics in the daily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Deokjun Eom , Sehyun Lee , Jaesik Choi

The consequences of complex disturbed environments in the vicinity of a supermassive black hole are not well represented by standard statistical models of optical variability in active galactic nuclei (AGN). Thus, developing new…

We introduce Neural Conditional Probability (NCP), an operator-theoretic approach to learning conditional distributions with a focus on statistical inference tasks. NCP can be used to build conditional confidence regions and extract key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Vladimir R. Kostic , Karim Lounici , Gregoire Pacreau , Pietro Novelli , Giacomo Turri , Massimiliano Pontil

Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-08 Pedro Afonso Fernandes

Classical deep learning typically operates on individual cases. Despite its success, real-world usage often requires repeated inference to estimate statistical quantities for complex decision-making tasks involving uncertainty or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Daniel Xu , Yuxin Xie , Minghao Guo , Haixu Wu , Wojciech Matusik

Neural Processes combine the strengths of neural networks and Gaussian processes to achieve both flexible learning and fast prediction in stochastic processes. However, a large class of problems comprises underlying temporal dependency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Gautam Singh , Jaesik Yoon , Youngsung Son , Sungjin Ahn

Neural Processes (NPs), and specifically Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), have demonstrated remarkable performance across tasks ranging from spatiotemporal forecasting to tabular data modelling. However, many of these applications are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Philip Mortimer , Cristiana Diaconu , Tommy Rochussen , Bruno Mlodozeniec , Richard E. Turner

Countless learning tasks require dealing with sequential data. Image captioning, speech synthesis, and music generation all require that a model produce outputs that are sequences. In other domains, such as time series prediction, video…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-10-20 Zachary C. Lipton , John Berkowitz , Charles Elkan

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been extraordinarily successful for prediction with sequential data. To tackle highly variable and noisy real-world data, we introduce Particle Filter Recurrent Neural Networks (PF-RNNs), a new RNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Xiao Ma , Peter Karkus , David Hsu , Wee Sun Lee

In Reinforcement Learning (RL), agents aim at maximizing cumulative rewards in a given environment. During the learning process, RL agents face the dilemma of exploitation and exploration: leveraging existing knowledge to acquire rewards or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Chenfan Weng , Zhongguo Li

A temporal point process is a mathematical model for a time series of discrete events, which covers various applications. Recently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have been developed for point processes and have been found…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-13 Takahiro Omi , Naonori Ueda , Kazuyuki Aihara

Functions are rich in meaning and can be interpreted in a variety of ways. Neural networks were proven to be capable of approximating a large class of functions[1]. In this paper, we propose a new class of neural networks called "Neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-16 Firat Tuna

A simulation is useful when the phenomenon of interest is either expensive to regenerate or irreproducible with the same context. Recently, Bayesian inference on the distribution of the simulation input parameter has been implemented…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-07 Dongjun Kim , Kyungwoo Song , Seungjae Shin , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon , Weonyoung Joo

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Neural Processes (NPs) families encode distributions over functions to a latent representation, given context data, and decode posterior mean and variance at unknown locations. Since mean and variance are derived from the same latent space,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Xuesong Wang , Lina Yao , Xianzhi Wang , Feiping Nie

Sparse deep learning has become a popular technique for improving the performance of deep neural networks in areas such as uncertainty quantification, variable selection, and large-scale network compression. However, most existing research…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Mingxuan Zhang , Yan Sun , Faming Liang

Complex statistical models are often built by combining multiple submodels, called modules. Here we consider modular inference where the modules contain both parametric and nonparametric components. In such cases, standard Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Linda S. L. Tan , David J. Nott , David T. Frazier