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Quantifying uncertainty and updating reliability are essential for ensuring the safety and performance of engineering systems. This study develops a hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) framework to quantify uncertainty and update…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-31 Xinyu Jia , Weinan Hou , Costas Papadimitriou

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-11 Matthew J. Johnson , Alan S. Willsky

The impressive performance of neural networks on natural language processing tasks attributes to their ability to model complicated word and phrase compositions. To explain how the model handles semantic compositions, we study hierarchical…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Xisen Jin , Zhongyu Wei , Junyi Du , Xiangyang Xue , Xiang Ren

Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM) are very useful in the fields of machine learning and data mining. The crucial limitation of those models,however, is the scalability. The Bayesian Network, which is one of the most common PGMs used in…

Algorithmic machine teaching studies the interaction between a teacher and a learner where the teacher selects labeled examples aiming at teaching a target hypothesis. In a quest to lower teaching complexity and to achieve more natural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-25 Farnam Mansouri , Yuxin Chen , Ara Vartanian , Xiaojin Zhu , Adish Singla

In this study, we propose an axiomatic system to define and quantify the precise memorization and in-context reasoning effects used by the large language model (LLM) for language generation. These effects are formulated as non-linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Siyu Lou , Yuntian Chen , Xiaodan Liang , Liang Lin , Quanshi Zhang

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Samuel Kessler , Adam Cobb , Tim G. J. Rudner , Stefan Zohren , Stephen J. Roberts

When analyzing real-world data it is common to work with event ensembles, which comprise sets of observations that collectively constrain the parameters of an underlying model of interest. Such models often have a hierarchical structure,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-22 Lukas Heinrich , Siddharth Mishra-Sharma , Chris Pollard , Philipp Windischhofer

Interpretability is a crucial aspect of machine learning models that enables humans to understand and trust the decision-making process of these models. In many real-world applications, the interpretability of models is essential for legal,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-18 Shree Charran R , Sandipan Das Mahapatra

Bayesian brain theory suggests that the brain employs generative models to understand the external world. The sampling-based perspective posits that the brain infers the posterior distribution through samples of stochastic neuronal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Xingsi Dong , Si Wu

This paper proposes a hierarchical generative model with a multi-grained latent variable to synthesize expressive speech. In recent years, fine-grained latent variables are introduced into the text-to-speech synthesis that enable the fine…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-28 Yukiya Hono , Kazuna Tsuboi , Kei Sawada , Kei Hashimoto , Keiichiro Oura , Yoshihiko Nankaku , Keiichi Tokuda

The challenges posed by high-dimensional data and use of the simplex constraint are two major concerns in the empirical application of the synthetic control method (SCM) in econometric studies. To address both issues simultaneously, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Yihong Xu , Quan Zhou

A major focus of causal inference is the estimation of heterogeneous average treatment effects (HTE) - average treatment effects within strata of another variable of interest such as levels of a biomarker, education, or age strata.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-05 Arman Oganisian , Nandita Mitra , Jason Roy

Recent works show that learning contextualized embeddings for words is beneficial for downstream tasks. BERT is one successful example of this approach. It learns embeddings by solving two tasks, which are masked language model (masked LM)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Çağla Aksoy , Alper Ahmetoğlu , Tunga Güngör

Sequence learning, prediction and replay have been proposed to constitute the universal computations performed by the neocortex. The Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) algorithm realizes these forms of computation. It learns sequences in an…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-21 Younes Bouhadjar , Dirk J. Wouters , Markus Diesmann , Tom Tetzlaff

Are certain cognitive biases mathematically inevitable consequences of sequential information processing? We prove that primacy effects, anchoring, and order-dependence are architecturally necessary in autoregressive language models due to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Jikun Wu , Dongxin Guo , Siu-Ming Yiu

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit a robust mastery of syntax when processing and generating text. While this suggests internalized understanding of hierarchical syntax and dependency relations, the precise mechanism by which they…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Ananth Agarwal , Jasper Jian , Christopher D. Manning , Shikhar Murty

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-11-10 A. Spurio Mancini , M. M. Docherty , M. A. Price , J. D. McEwen

We propose a Bayesian generative model for incorporating prior domain knowledge into hierarchical topic modeling. Although embedded topic models (ETMs) and its variants have gained promising performance in text analysis, they mainly focus…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Dongsheng Wang , Yishi Xu , Miaoge Li , Zhibin Duan , Chaojie Wang , Bo Chen , Mingyuan Zhou

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini