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The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in the potential outcome setting is biased when there exists model misspecification or unobserved confounding. As these biases are unobservable, what model to use when remains a critical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Explainable boosting machines (EBMs) are popular "glass-box" models that learn a set of univariate functions using boosting trees. These achieve explainability through visualizations of each feature's effect. However, unlike linear model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Haimo Fang , Kevin Tan , Jonathan Pipping-Gamon , Giles Hooker

In this work, we offer a thorough analytical investigation into the role of shared hyperparameters in a hierarchical Bayesian model, examining their impact on information borrowing and posterior inference. Our approach is rooted in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Prasenjit Ghosh , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

As Large Language Models (LLMs) and other AI systems evolve, robustly estimating their capabilities from inherently stochastic outputs while systematically quantifying uncertainty in these estimates becomes increasingly important. Further,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Lennart Luettgau , Harry Coppock , Magda Dubois , Christopher Summerfield , Cozmin Ududec

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work…

Well-calibrated probabilistic regression models are a crucial learning component in robotics applications as datasets grow rapidly and tasks become more complex. Unfortunately, classical regression models are usually either probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Hany Abdulsamad , Peter Nickl , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

Results from a recent neuroimaging study on spoken sentence comprehension have been interpreted as evidence for cortical entrainment to hierarchical syntactic structure. We present a simple computational model that predicts the power…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-06-15 Stefan Frank , Jinbiao Yang

Bayesian hierarchical models are frequently used in practical data analysis contexts. One interpretation of these models is that they provide an indirect way of assigning a prior for unknown parameters, through the introduction of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-01 Brendon J. Brewer

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Yuling Yao , Gregor Pirš , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

In this thesis, we try to build a connection between the two schools by introducing syntactic inductive biases for deep learning models. We propose two families of inductive biases, one for constituency structure and another one for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Yikang Shen

Transformers trained on natural language data have been shown to learn its hierarchical structure and generalize to sentences with unseen syntactic structures without explicitly encoding any structural bias. In this work, we investigate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Kabir Ahuja , Vidhisha Balachandran , Madhur Panwar , Tianxing He , Noah A. Smith , Navin Goyal , Yulia Tsvetkov

Naturally-occurring bracketings, such as answer fragments to natural language questions and hyperlinks on webpages, can reflect human syntactic intuition regarding phrasal boundaries. Their availability and approximate correspondence to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-04-30 Tianze Shi , Ozan İrsoy , Igor Malioutov , Lillian Lee

Large language models are increasingly used as behavioral simulators, but it remains unclear when their outputs reflect human-like cognitive mechanisms rather than prompt-sensitive surface patterns. We study this question through the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Ciarán Walsh , Emilio Barkett

Models need appropriate inductive biases to effectively learn from small amounts of data and generalize systematically outside of the training distribution. While Transformers are highly versatile and powerful, they can still benefit from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Matthias Lindemann , Alexander Koller , Ivan Titov

It is of some interest to understand how statistically based mechanisms for signal processing might be integrated with biologically motivated mechanisms such as neural networks. This paper explores a novel hybrid approach for classifying…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2016-07-22 Amirhossein Tavanaei , Anthony S Maida

Considering the flexibility and applicability of Bayesian modeling, in this work we revise the main characteristics of two hierarchical models in a regression setting. We study the full probabilistic structure of the models along with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Juan Sosa , Jeimy Aristizabal

Frequently, population studies feature pyramidally-organized data represented using Hierarchical Bayesian Models (HBM) enriched with plates. These models can become prohibitively large in settings such as neuroimaging, where a sample is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-09 Louis Rouillard , Demian Wassermann

Foundational image-language models have generated considerable interest due to their efficient adaptation to downstream tasks by prompt learning. Prompt learning treats part of the language model input as trainable while freezing the rest,…

Humans can learn structural properties about a word from minimal experience, and deploy their learned syntactic representations uniformly in different grammatical contexts. We assess the ability of modern neural language models to reproduce…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Ethan Wilcox , Peng Qian , Richard Futrell , Ryosuke Kohita , Roger Levy , Miguel Ballesteros

A principled approach to characterize the hidden structure of networks is to formulate generative models, and then infer their parameters from data. When the desired structure is composed of modules or "communities", a suitable choice for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-08-23 Tiago P. Peixoto