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Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Jeremy Nixon , Mike Dusenberry , Ghassen Jerfel , Timothy Nguyen , Jeremiah Liu , Linchuan Zhang , Dustin Tran

Calibrated predictions are useful because their numerical values can be interpreted as probabilities. Calibration errors are therefore widely used to evaluate, compare, and tune probabilistic predictors. Recently, Haghtalab et al. (2024)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yuxuan Lu , Yifan Wu , Jason Hartline , Lunjia Hu

We investigate the performance of model based bootstrap methods for constructing point-wise confidence intervals around the survival function with interval censored data. We show that bootstrapping from the nonparametric maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-24 Bodhisattva Sen , Gongjun Xu

In the presence of a missing response, reweighting the complete case subsample by the inverse of nonmissing probability is both intuitive and easy to implement. When the population totals of some auxiliary variables are known and when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-16 Kwun Chuen Gary Chan , Sheung Chi Phillip Yam

Multi-state survival analysis (MSA) uses multi-state models for the analysis of time-to-event data. In medical applications, MSA can provide insights about the complex disease progression in patients. A key challenge in MSA is the accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-13 Md Mahmudur Rahman , Sanjay Purushotham

Causal inference with time-to-event outcomes is fundamental in various scientific studies. In a static setup with fitted propensity scores, weighted Kaplan-Meier estimation for survival probabilities and weighted Breslow-Peto estimation for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Wenfu Xu , Yi Zhang , Tobias Gerhard , Zhiqiang Tan

Fair calibration is a widely desirable fairness criteria in risk prediction contexts. One way to measure and achieve fair calibration is with multicalibration. Multicalibration constrains calibration error among flexibly-defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-04 William La Cava , Elle Lett , Guangya Wan

In observational causal inference, domain knowledge often leaves multiple covariate adjustments plausible, yet which sets satisfy ignorability is untestable. Different adjustment sets can yield conflicting estimates of the average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Aditya Ghosh , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) has witnessed remarkable advancements in improving the accuracy of models for unlabeled target domains. However, the calibration of predictive uncertainty in the target domain, a crucial aspect of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-17 Dapeng Hu , Jian Liang , Xinchao Wang , Chuan-Sheng Foo

The sample compression theory provides generalization guarantees for predictors that can be fully defined using a subset of the training dataset and a (short) message string, generally defined as a binary sequence. Previous works provided…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Mathieu Bazinet , Valentina Zantedeschi , Pascal Germain

Accurate classification of medical device risk levels is essential for regulatory oversight and clinical safety. We present a Transformer-based multimodal framework that integrates textual descriptions and visual information to predict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-02 Yu Han , Aaron Ceross , Jeroen H. M. Bergmann

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Shi-ang Qi , Vahid Balazadeh , Michael Cooper , Russell Greiner , Rahul G. Krishnan

In this paper, we propose a flexible model for survival analysis using neural networks along with scalable optimization algorithms. One key technical challenge for directly applying maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to censored data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-07 Weijing Tang , Jiaqi Ma , Qiaozhu Mei , Ji Zhu

In causal inference, estimating the average treatment effect is a central objective, and in the context of competing risks data, this effect can be quantified by the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF) difference. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Yifei Tian , Ying Wu

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Gongbo Liang , Yu Zhang , Xiaoqin Wang , Nathan Jacobs

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wenjian Huang , Guiping Cao , Jiahao Xia , Jingkun Chen , Hao Wang , Jianguo Zhang

Survival analysis is a challenging variation of regression modeling because of the presence of censoring, where the outcome measurement is only partially known, due to, for example, loss to follow up. Such problems come up frequently in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Chirag Nagpal , Steve Yadlowsky , Negar Rostamzadeh , Katherine Heller

Self-training is a classical approach in semi-supervised learning which is successfully applied to a variety of machine learning problems. Self-training algorithm generates pseudo-labels for the unlabeled examples and progressively refines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Samet Oymak , Talha Cihad Gulcu

Prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes often utilize survival models that rely on strong assumptions about noninformative censoring or on how individual-level covariates and survival functions are related. When the main interest is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-29 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

We develop a model-based boosting approach for multivariate distributional regression within the framework of generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape. Our approach enables the simultaneous modeling of all distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Annika Strömer , Nadja Klein , Christian Staerk , Hannah Klinkhammer , Andreas Mayr