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Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

To evaluate a classification algorithm, it is common practice to plot the ROC curve using test data. However, the inherent randomness in the test data can undermine our confidence in the conclusions drawn from the ROC curve, necessitating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-22 Zheshi Zheng , Bo Yang , Peter Song

The analysis of data such as graphs has been gaining increasing attention in the past years. This is justified by the numerous applications in which they appear. Several methods are present to predict graphs, but much fewer to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Anna Calissano , Matteo Fontana , Gianluca Zeni , Simone Vantini

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

In this paper the application of uncertainty modeling to convolutional neural networks is evaluated. A novel method for adjusting the network's predictions based on uncertainty information is introduced. This allows the network to be either…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-12-23 Rene Grzeszick , Sebastian Sudholt , Gernot A. Fink

Uncertainty estimation in machine learning has traditionally focused on the prediction stage, aiming to quantify confidence in model outputs while treating learned representations as deterministic and reliable by default. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Yiyao Yang

Despite extensive research on neural network calibration, existing methods typically apply global transformations that treat all predictions uniformly, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of individual predictions. Furthermore, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Hassan Gharoun , Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi , Kasra Ranjbarigderi , Fang Chen , Amir H. Gandomi

Computer-aided diagnosis systems must make critical decisions from medical images that are often noisy, ambiguous, or conflicting, yet today's models are trained on overly simplistic labels that ignore diagnostic uncertainty. One-hot labels…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Ang Nan Gu , Michael Tsang , Hooman Vaseli , Purang Abolmaesumi , Teresa Tsang

Prediction sets provide a theoretically grounded framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. Adapting them to structured generation tasks, in particular, large language model (LLM) based code generation, remains a…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Senrong Xu , Yuhao Tan , Yanke Zhou , Guangyuan Wu , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Image-based environment perception is an important component especially for driver assistance systems or autonomous driving. In this scope, modern neuronal networks are used to identify multiple objects as well as the according position and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Fabian Küppers

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

Automated decision support systems promise to help human experts solve multiclass classification tasks more efficiently and accurately. However, existing systems typically require experts to understand when to cede agency to the system or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Eleni Straitouri , Lequn Wang , Nastaran Okati , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Safety assurance is critical in the planning and control of robotic systems. For robots operating in the real world, the safety-critical design often needs to explicitly address uncertainties and the pre-computed guarantees often rely on…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Hao Zhou , Yanze Zhang , Wenhao Luo

Operator learning has been increasingly adopted in scientific and engineering applications, many of which require calibrated uncertainty quantification. Since the output of operator learning is a continuous function, quantifying uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Ziqi Ma , Kamyar Azizzadenesheli , Anima Anandkumar

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Conformal prediction, which makes no distributional assumptions about the data, has emerged as a powerful and reliable approach to uncertainty quantification in practical applications. The nonconformity measure used in conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Yuko Kato , David M. J. Tax , Marco Loog

Neuro-Symbolic Concept-based Models (NeSy-CBMs) are a family of architectures that integrate neural networks with symbolic reasoning for enhanced reliability in high-stakes applications. They work by first extracting high-level concepts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Samuele Bortolotti , Emanuele Marconato , Andrea Pugnana , Andrea Passerini , Stefano Teso

Image restoration problems are often ill-posed, leading to significant uncertainty in reconstructed images. Accurately quantifying this uncertainty is essential for the reliable interpretation of reconstructed images. However, image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Bernardin Tamo Amougou , Marcelo Pereyra , Barbara Pascal

Currently, various uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to provide certainty and probability estimates for deep learning models' label predictions. Meanwhile, with the growing demand for the right to be forgotten, machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Wei Qian , Chenxu Zhao , Yangyi Li , Wenqian Ye , Mengdi Huai
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