Related papers: Likelihood distortion and Bayesian local robustnes…
In Bayesian analysis, the posterior follows from the data and a choice of a prior and a likelihood. One hopes that the posterior is robust to reasonable variation in the choice of prior, since this choice is made by the modeler and is often…
In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate…
In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability…
Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…
In this note we consider the stability of posterior measures occuring in Bayesian inference w.r.t. perturbations of the prior measure and the log-likelihood function. This extends the well-posedness analysis of Bayesian inverse problems. In…
In Bayesian decision theory, it is known that robustness with respect to the loss and the prior can be improved by adding new observations. In this article we study the rate of robustness improvement with respect to the number of…
We present an extension of local sensitivity analysis, also referred to as the perturbation approach for uncertainty quantification, to Bayesian inverse problems. More precisely, we show how moments of random variables with respect to the…
This paper deals with measuring the Bayesian robustness of classes of contaminated priors. Two different classes of priors in the neighborhood of the elicited prior are considered. The first one is the well-known $\epsilon$-contaminated…
This paper develops a methodology for robust Bayesian inference through the use of disparities. Metrics such as Hellinger distance and negative exponential disparity have a long history in robust estimation in frequentist inference. We…
This paper studies the influence of perturbations of conjugate priors in Bayesian inference. A perturbed prior is defined inside a larger family, local mixture models, and the effect on posterior inference is studied. The perturbation, in…
We propose a general solution to the problem of robust Bayesian inference in complex settings where outliers may be present. In practice, the automation of robust Bayesian analyses is important in the many applications involving large and…
The practical implementation of Bayesian inference requires numerical approximation when closed-form expressions are not available. What types of accuracy (convergence) of the numerical approximations guarantee robustness and what types do…
Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian…
A local projection is a statistical framework that accounts for the relationship between an exogenous variable and an endogenous variable, measured at different time points. Local projections are often applied in impulse response analyses…
The robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance in making well-informed decisions. In this paper, we quantify, for the class of distortion risk measures with…
In safety-critical deep learning applications, robustness measures the ability of neural models that handle imperceptible perturbations in input data, which may lead to potential safety hazards. Existing pre-deployment robustness assessment…
The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…
In Bayesian analysis, the posterior follows from the data and a choice of a prior and a likelihood. One hopes that the posterior is robust to reasonable variation in the choice of prior and likelihood, since this choice is made by the…
Bayesian networks are one of the most widely used classes of probabilistic models for risk management and decision support because of their interpretability and flexibility in including heterogeneous pieces of information. In any applied…
In the Bayes paradigm and for a given loss function, we propose the construction of a new type of posterior distributions, that extends the classical Bayes one, for estimating the law of an $n$-sample. The loss functions we have in mind are…